--- title: "Assassin case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Assassin ($47.39) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 98.61% over 189 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/assassin rendered: 2026-11-11T23:00Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Assassin](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/assassin) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Assassin A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/assassin?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/assassin?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/assassin) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/assassin?window=all) Price · $47.39 · 72.91 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $42.65 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 98.61% · 189 openings, odds method Variance · 2.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 40.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 18 openings · below min 7 days · 75.54% ±30.53 102 openings 30 days · 98.61% ±22.43 189 openings since tracking started · 98.61% ±22.43 189 openings 4.0% 77.3% 150.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/assassin?window=24h) | 18 | 77.23% ±72.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/assassin?window=7d) | 102 | 75.54% ±30.5 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/assassin) | 189 | 98.61% ±22.4 | +0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/assassin?window=all) | 189 | 98.61% ±22.4 | +0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 189 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,814 2,790 gems | 4.3% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [AUG \| Midnight Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 10 | $154 236 gems | 35.7% | 13 | 18.7 | 0.69× | | [USP-S \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-factory-new) | 30.0% | $75.43 116 gems | 53.1% | 57 | 56.7 | 1.01× | | [AWP \| Corticera (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $25.64 39.45 gems | 3.0% | 16 | 9.4 | 1.69× | | [USP-S \| Para Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-factory-new) | 15.0% | $7.40 11.39 gems | 2.6% | 25 | 28.3 | 0.88× | | [R8 Revolver \| Night (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-night-factory-new) | 20.0% | $2.41 3.7 gems | 1.1% | 44 | 37.8 | 1.16× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Midnight Palm (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-midnight-palm-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.62 0.95 gems | 0.3% | 33 | 37.8 | 0.87× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $47.39 72.91 gems $1,814 2,790 gems 38.27x 2026-11-03 21:25 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=assassin) [R8 Revolver | Night (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-night-factory-new) Hidden $47.39 72.91 gems $2.41 3.7 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 08:27 UTC [USP-S | Para Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-factory-new) Hidden $47.39 72.91 gems $7.40 11.39 gems 0.16x 2026-11-11 08:27 UTC [USP-S | Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-factory-new) Hidden $47.39 72.91 gems $75.43 116 gems 1.59x 2026-11-11 08:27 UTC [R8 Revolver | Night (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-night-factory-new) Hidden $47.39 72.91 gems $2.41 3.7 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 08:27 UTC [AUG | Midnight Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-factory-new) Hidden $47.39 72.91 gems $154 236 gems 3.24x 2026-11-11 08:27 UTC [USP-S | Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-factory-new) [Juni6969](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Juni6969) $47.39 72.91 gems $75.43 116 gems 1.59x 2026-11-11 08:27 UTC [USP-S | Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-factory-new) Hidden $47.39 72.91 gems $75.43 116 gems 1.59x 2026-11-11 08:26 UTC [USP-S | Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-factory-new) Hidden $47.39 72.91 gems $75.43 116 gems 1.59x 2026-11-11 08:26 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-midnight-palm-factory-new) Hidden $47.39 72.91 gems $0.62 0.95 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 08:26 UTC [R8 Revolver | Night (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-night-factory-new) Hidden $47.39 72.91 gems $2.41 3.7 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 08:26 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $47.39 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.1% restricted 9.9% classified 35.0% industrial 15.0% consumer 20.0% Uncommon 20.0% best hit $1,814 (38.27x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt