---
title: "AWP Main V10 case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "AWP Main V10 ($39.35) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 23 items with odds, observed 90.67% over 1,738 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/awp-main-v10
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:37Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [AWP Main V10](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/awp-main-v10)

# [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · AWP Main V10

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/awp-main-v10?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/awp-main-v10?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/awp-main-v10) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/awp-main-v10?window=all)

Price · $39.35 · 60.54 gems

Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $35.41 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.67% · 1,738 openings, odds method

Variance · 21.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 88.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 139 openings · below min

7 days · 85.57% ±27.83 1,059 openings

30 days · 90.67% ±21.72 1,738 openings

since tracking started · 90.67% ±21.72 1,738 openings

-0.5% 74.8% 150.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/awp-main-v10?window=24h) | 139 | 72.69% ±76.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/awp-main-v10?window=7d) | 1,059 | 85.57% ±27.8 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/awp-main-v10) | 1,738 | 90.67% ±21.7 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/awp-main-v10?window=all) | 1,738 | 90.67% ±21.7 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,778 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $6,818 10,489 gems | 1.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $4,354 6,698 gems | 6.1% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) | 1 in 714 | $1,717 2,642 gems | 6.8% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.61× |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Well-Worn) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $1,416 2,178 gems | 8.0% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.56× |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 167 | $904 1,391 gems | 15.3% | 14 | 10.7 | 1.31× |
| [AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $646 994 gems | 18.2% | 19 | 17.8 | 1.07× |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $325 500 gems | 18.3% | 28 | 35.6 | 0.79× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $172 265 gems | 9.7% | 42 | 35.6 | 1.18× |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $91.64 141 gems | 5.2% | 27 | 35.6 | 0.76× |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $49.71 76.47 gems | 2.8% | 42 | 35.6 | 1.18× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $39.40 60.61 gems | 2.2% | 43 | 35.6 | 1.21× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $25.70 39.54 gems | 1.5% | 35 | 35.6 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $17.67 27.19 gems | 1.0% | 42 | 35.6 | 1.18× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $11.86 18.25 gems | 0.7% | 39 | 35.6 | 1.10× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $6.65 10.23 gems | 0.4% | 40 | 35.6 | 1.12× |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-factory-new) | 10.0% | $3.00 4.62 gems | 0.8% | 182 | 177.8 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $1.55 2.38 gems | 0.4% | 172 | 177.8 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.72 1.11 gems | 0.2% | 169 | 177.8 | 0.95× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.56 0.86 gems | 0.2% | 182 | 177.8 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $0.28 0.43 gems | 0.1% | 152 | 177.8 | 0.85× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.16 0.25 gems | 0.0% | 185 | 177.8 | 1.04× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $0.08 0.12 gems | 0.0% | 186 | 177.8 | 1.05× |
| [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.03 0.05 gems | 0.0% | 172 | 177.8 | 0.97× |

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) Hidden $39.35 60.54 gems $4,354 6,698 gems 110.6x 2026-11-06 18:02 UTC

[AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.35 60.54 gems $1,717 2,642 gems 43.64x 2026-11-07 18:41 UTC

[AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.35 60.54 gems $1,717 2,642 gems 43.64x 2026-11-04 16:47 UTC

[AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.35 60.54 gems $1,717 2,642 gems 43.64x 2026-11-04 11:11 UTC

[AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) [koutoulidis](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/koutoulidis) $39.35 60.54 gems $1,717 2,642 gems 43.64x 2026-11-03 22:52 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Well-Worn) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-well-worn) Hidden $39.35 60.54 gems $1,416 2,178 gems 35.98x 2026-11-06 12:03 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Well-Worn) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-well-worn) Hidden $39.35 60.54 gems $1,416 2,178 gems 35.98x 2026-11-02 22:15 UTC

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) Hidden $39.35 60.54 gems $904 1,391 gems 22.98x 2026-11-11 00:18 UTC

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) [Sleepy Jackalope](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Sleepy%20Jackalope) $39.35 60.54 gems $904 1,391 gems 22.98x 2026-11-10 19:33 UTC

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) Hidden $39.35 60.54 gems $904 1,391 gems 22.98x 2026-11-10 00:27 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=awp-main-v10)

[AWP | Capillary (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-battle-scarred) Hidden $39.35 60.54 gems $0.08 0.12 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:40 UTC

[AWP | PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) Hidden $39.35 60.54 gems $0.72 1.11 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:40 UTC

[AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $39.35 60.54 gems $0.03 0.05 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:40 UTC

[AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) [colin](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/colin) $39.35 60.54 gems $0.03 0.05 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:40 UTC

[AWP | PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) Hidden $39.35 60.54 gems $0.72 1.11 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:24 UTC

[AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) Hidden $39.35 60.54 gems $39.40 60.61 gems 1.00x 2026-11-11 20:24 UTC

[AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) Hidden $39.35 60.54 gems $0.56 0.86 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:24 UTC

[AWP | Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) Hidden $39.35 60.54 gems $0.16 0.25 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:24 UTC

[AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) Hidden $39.35 60.54 gems $0.56 0.86 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:24 UTC

[AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) [BolpyFR](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/BolpyFR) $39.35 60.54 gems $17.67 27.19 gems 0.45x 2026-11-11 20:24 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $39.35 | 89.99% | 23 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 11.8% legendary 0.2% classified 6.0% red 2.0% Restricted 10.0% blue 10.0% Mythical 10.0% restricted 20.0% milspec 10.0% #4b69ff 10.0% industrial 10.0% best hit $4,354 (110.6x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt