--- title: "AWP Main case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "AWP Main ($8.57) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 14 items with odds, observed 100.27% over 3,720 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/awp-main rendered: 2026-11-11T13:53Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [AWP Main](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/awp-main) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · AWP Main A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/awp-main?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/awp-main?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/awp-main) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/awp-main?window=all) Price · $8.57 · 13.18 gems Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $7.71 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 100.27% · 3,720 openings, odds method Variance · 130.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 13.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 76.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 65.32% ±117.93 361 openings 7 days · 103.21% ±38.37 3,410 openings 30 days · 100.27% ±36.74 3,720 openings since tracking started · 100.27% ±36.74 3,720 openings -0.5% 91.8% 184.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/awp-main?window=24h) | 361 | 65.32% ±117.9 | −0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/awp-main?window=7d) | 3,410 | 103.21% ±38.4 | +0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/awp-main) | 3,720 | 100.27% ±36.7 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/awp-main?window=all) | 3,720 | 100.27% ±36.7 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,738 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $9,127 14,042 gems | 11.8% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [AWP \| Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) | 1 in 1,111 | $1,160 1,785 gems | 13.5% | 1 | 3.4 | 0.30× | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-battle-scarred) | 1 in 333 | $105 161 gems | 4.1% | 10 | 11.2 | 0.89× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $47.67 73.34 gems | 3.7% | 26 | 22.4 | 1.16× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $19.01 29.25 gems | 14.8% | 222 | 224.3 | 0.99× | | [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $15.91 24.48 gems | 12.4% | 227 | 224.3 | 1.01× | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 11.0% | $12.03 18.5 gems | 17.2% | 420 | 411.2 | 1.02× | | [AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $8.31 12.79 gems | 12.9% | 475 | 448.6 | 1.06× | | [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $3.90 6 gems | 4.0% | 293 | 299.0 | 0.98× | | [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 10.0% | $2.11 3.25 gems | 2.7% | 360 | 373.8 | 0.96× | | [AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $0.92 1.41 gems | 1.2% | 384 | 373.8 | 1.03× | | [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $0.70 1.07 gems | 0.9% | 394 | 373.8 | 1.05× | | [AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) | 11.0% | $0.38 0.59 gems | 0.5% | 385 | 411.2 | 0.94× | | [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 15.0% | $0.06 0.09 gems | 0.1% | 540 | 560.7 | 0.96× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) [247ZAZA67FULLBOXED](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/247ZAZA67FULLBOXED) $8.57 13.18 gems $9,127 14,042 gems 1,065x 2026-11-07 21:04 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) Hidden $8.57 13.18 gems $1,160 1,785 gems 135.4x 2026-11-08 18:47 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=awp-main) [AWP | Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) Hidden $8.57 13.18 gems $0.38 0.59 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.57 13.18 gems $8.31 12.79 gems 0.97x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.57 13.18 gems $8.31 12.79 gems 0.97x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $8.57 13.18 gems $0.06 0.09 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $8.57 13.18 gems $0.06 0.09 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [AWP | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) [Elizabeth](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Elizabeth) $8.57 13.18 gems $12.03 18.5 gems 1.40x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [AWP | Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) Hidden $8.57 13.18 gems $0.38 0.59 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) Hidden $8.57 13.18 gems $19.01 29.25 gems 2.22x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) Hidden $8.57 13.18 gems $2.11 3.25 gems 0.25x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [AWP | Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) Hidden $8.57 13.18 gems $0.38 0.59 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $8.57 | 89.98% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 13.0% red 11.0% Legendary 12.0% classified 8.0% restricted 21.0% #8847ff 20.0% industrial 15.0% best hit $9,127 (1,065x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt