--- title: "Bad Outcome case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Bad Outcome ($28.76) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 95.57% over 139 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/bad-outcome rendered: 2026-11-11T20:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Bad Outcome](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/bad-outcome) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Bad Outcome A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/bad-outcome?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/bad-outcome?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/bad-outcome) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/bad-outcome?window=all) Price · $28.76 · 44.24 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $25.88 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.57% · 139 openings, odds method Variance · 4.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 40.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 20 openings · below min 7 days · 100.40% ±37.48 113 openings 30 days · 95.57% ±33.79 139 openings since tracking started · 95.57% ±33.79 139 openings 37.0% 126.8% 216.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/bad-outcome?window=24h) | 20 | 126.53% ±89.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/bad-outcome?window=7d) | 113 | 100.40% ±37.5 | +0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/bad-outcome) | 139 | 95.57% ±33.8 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/bad-outcome?window=all) | 139 | 95.57% ±33.8 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 145 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,102 7,849 gems | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) | 15.0% | $72.19 111 gems | 41.8% | 16 | 21.7 | 0.74× | | [MP9 \| Dark Age (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dark-age-factory-new) | 25.0% | $52.68 81.04 gems | 50.9% | 50 | 36.2 | 1.38× | | [M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-factory-new) | 10.0% | $8.62 13.26 gems | 3.3% | 14 | 14.5 | 0.97× | | [P250 \| Dark Filigree (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-dark-filigree-factory-new) | 10.0% | $3.15 4.85 gems | 1.2% | 12 | 14.5 | 0.83× | | [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1.43 2.2 gems | 0.6% | 21 | 14.5 | 1.45× | | [Galil AR \| Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.37 0.57 gems | 0.2% | 15 | 21.7 | 0.69× | | [UMP-45 \| Facility Dark (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-facility-dark-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.03 0.04 gems | 0.0% | 17 | 21.8 | 0.78× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=bad-outcome) [AK-47 | Black Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $28.76 44.24 gems $72.19 111 gems 2.51x 2026-11-11 18:02 UTC [UMP-45 | Facility Dark (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-facility-dark-factory-new) Hidden $28.76 44.24 gems $0.03 0.04 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:02 UTC [MP9 | Dark Age (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dark-age-factory-new) Hidden $28.76 44.24 gems $52.68 81.04 gems 1.83x 2026-11-11 18:02 UTC [AK-47 | Black Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $28.76 44.24 gems $72.19 111 gems 2.51x 2026-11-11 18:02 UTC [M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-factory-new) Hidden $28.76 44.24 gems $8.62 13.26 gems 0.30x 2026-11-11 18:02 UTC [SG 553 | Darkwing (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-factory-new) [Pielenhofer](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Pielenhofer) $28.76 44.24 gems $1.43 2.2 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:02 UTC [UMP-45 | Facility Dark (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-facility-dark-factory-new) Hidden $28.76 44.24 gems $0.03 0.04 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:01 UTC [MP9 | Dark Age (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dark-age-factory-new) Hidden $28.76 44.24 gems $52.68 81.04 gems 1.83x 2026-11-11 17:01 UTC [SG 553 | Darkwing (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-factory-new) Hidden $28.76 44.24 gems $1.43 2.2 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 17:01 UTC [MP9 | Dark Age (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dark-age-factory-new) [Liborosak](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Liborosak) $28.76 44.24 gems $52.68 81.04 gems 1.83x 2026-11-11 17:01 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $28.76 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% mil spec 30.0% #4b69ff 25.0% industrial 20.0% restricted 10.0% consumer 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt