--- title: "Baller Knife 50-50 case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Baller Knife 50-50 ($498.00) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 112.99% over 16 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/baller-knife-50-50 rendered: 2026-11-12T01:25Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Baller Knife 50-50](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/baller-knife-50-50) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Baller Knife 50-50 A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/baller-knife-50-50?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/baller-knife-50-50?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/baller-knife-50-50) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/baller-knife-50-50?window=all) Price · $498.00 · 766 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $448.20 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 112.99% · 16 openings, odds method Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 25.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 50.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 16 openings · below min 30 days · 16 openings · below min since tracking started · 16 openings · below min 67.5% 113.0% 158.5% **Small sample.** 16 openings and 4.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/baller-knife-50-50?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/baller-knife-50-50?window=7d) | 16 | 112.99% ±44.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/baller-knife-50-50) | 16 | 112.99% ±44.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/baller-knife-50-50?window=all) | 16 | 112.99% ±44.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1,119 1,722 gems | 12.5% | 4 | 0.8 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $1,080 1,661 gems | 12.0% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 15.0% | $924 1,422 gems | 30.9% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× | | [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 25.0% | $798 1,227 gems | 44.5% | 2 | 4.0 | 0.50× | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $1.54 2.37 gems | 0.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [Galil AR \| Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-blue-titanium-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1.09 1.68 gems | 0.0% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [Sawed-Off \| Snake Camo (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-snake-camo-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.20 0.31 gems | 0.0% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× | | [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.17 0.26 gems | 0.0% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.25× | | [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-well-worn) | 10.0% | $0.05 0.08 gems | 0.0% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.25× | | [MP5-SD \| Dirt Drop (Well-Worn) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-dirt-drop-well-worn) | 10.0% | $0.02 0.03 gems | 0.0% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 12 Nov, 00:07 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-factory-new) Hidden $498 766 gems $1,119 1,722 gems 2.25x 2026-11-09 05:23 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-factory-new) [Sieras](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Sieras) $498 766 gems $1,119 1,722 gems 2.25x 2026-11-07 14:13 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-factory-new) Hidden $498 766 gems $1,119 1,722 gems 2.25x 2026-11-06 08:48 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-factory-new) Hidden $498 766 gems $1,119 1,722 gems 2.25x 2026-11-06 08:48 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) Hidden $498 766 gems $1,080 1,661 gems 2.17x 2026-11-06 08:48 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $498 766 gems $924 1,422 gems 1.86x 2026-11-09 05:23 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $498 766 gems $924 1,422 gems 1.86x 2026-11-07 14:13 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $498 766 gems $798 1,227 gems 1.60x 2026-11-09 05:23 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $498 766 gems $798 1,227 gems 1.60x 2026-11-06 08:48 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=baller-knife-50-50) [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $498 766 gems $0.17 0.26 gems 0.00x 2026-11-09 05:23 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-well-worn) Hidden $498 766 gems $0.05 0.08 gems 0.00x 2026-11-09 05:23 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-factory-new) Hidden $498 766 gems $1,119 1,722 gems 2.25x 2026-11-09 05:23 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $498 766 gems $924 1,422 gems 1.86x 2026-11-09 05:23 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $498 766 gems $798 1,227 gems 1.60x 2026-11-09 05:23 UTC [MP5-SD | Dirt Drop (Well-Worn) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-dirt-drop-well-worn) [ARIETE](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/ARIETE) $498 766 gems $0.02 0.03 gems 0.00x 2026-11-09 05:23 UTC [Galil AR | Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-blue-titanium-factory-new) Hidden $498 766 gems $1.09 1.68 gems 0.00x 2026-11-07 14:14 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) [Sieras](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Sieras) $498 766 gems $0.17 0.26 gems 0.00x 2026-11-07 14:14 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $498 766 gems $924 1,422 gems 1.86x 2026-11-07 14:13 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-factory-new) [Sieras](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Sieras) $498 766 gems $1,119 1,722 gems 2.25x 2026-11-07 14:13 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $498 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 45.0% #ffd700 5.0% pink 5.0% mil spec 5.0% Industrial Grade 10.0% Uncommon 10.0% #4b69ff 10.0% #B0C3D9 10.0% best hit $1,119 (2.25x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt