--- title: "Bank Heist case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Bank Heist ($174.82) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 78.44% over 56 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/bank-heist rendered: 2026-11-11T21:31Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Bank Heist](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/bank-heist) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Bank Heist A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/bank-heist?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/bank-heist?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/bank-heist) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/bank-heist?window=all) Price · $174.82 · 269 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $157.33 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 78.44% · 56 openings, odds method Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 40.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 50 openings · below min 30 days · 56 openings · below min since tracking started · 56 openings · below min 46.0% 75.8% 105.5% **Small sample.** 56 openings and 22.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/bank-heist?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/bank-heist?window=7d) | 50 | 74.32% ±27.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/bank-heist) | 56 | 78.44% ±26.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/bank-heist?window=all) | 56 | 78.44% ±26.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 56 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-battle-scarred) | 40.0% | $370 570 gems | 94.2% | 19 | 22.4 | 0.85× | | [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-nuclear-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $95.50 147 gems | 3.0% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.43× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Graven (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · SMGs](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-graven-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $66.54 102 gems | 2.1% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.07× | | [Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-the-kraken-factory-new) | 15.0% | $4.58 7.04 gems | 0.4% | 7 | 8.4 | 0.83× | | [P250 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $2.13 3.28 gems | 0.1% | 9 | 5.6 | 1.61× | | [SSG 08 \| Parallax (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-parallax-well-worn) | 10.0% | $0.85 1.3 gems | 0.1% | 2 | 5.6 | 0.36× | | [MP7 \| Vault Heist (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-vault-heist-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.64 0.98 gems | 0.1% | 12 | 8.4 | 1.43× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=bank-heist) [P250 | Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-battle-scarred) Hidden $175 269 gems $2.13 3.28 gems 0.01x 2026-11-10 04:48 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $175 269 gems $370 570 gems 2.12x 2026-11-10 04:48 UTC [StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Graven (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · SMGs](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-graven-factory-new) Hidden $175 269 gems $66.54 102 gems 0.38x 2026-11-10 04:48 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $175 269 gems $370 570 gems 2.12x 2026-11-10 04:48 UTC [Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-the-kraken-factory-new) Hidden $175 269 gems $4.58 7.04 gems 0.03x 2026-11-10 04:48 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-battle-scarred) [Dartt](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Dartt) $175 269 gems $370 570 gems 2.12x 2026-11-10 04:48 UTC [Souvenir Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-nuclear-threat-field-tested) Hidden $175 269 gems $95.50 147 gems 0.55x 2026-11-10 04:35 UTC [MP7 | Vault Heist (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-vault-heist-factory-new) [Dartt](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Dartt) $175 269 gems $0.64 0.98 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 04:35 UTC [MP7 | Vault Heist (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-vault-heist-factory-new) Hidden $175 269 gems $0.64 0.98 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 02:06 UTC [P250 | Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-battle-scarred) Hidden $175 269 gems $2.13 3.28 gems 0.01x 2026-11-10 02:06 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $175 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 55.0% restricted 5.0% SMGs 5.0% classified 10.0% violet 10.0% industrial 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt