--- title: "Be My Valentine case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Be My Valentine ($4.08) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 9 items with odds, observed 88.83% over 8,571 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/be-my-valentine rendered: 2026-11-11T23:23Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Be My Valentine](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/be-my-valentine) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Be My Valentine A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/be-my-valentine?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/be-my-valentine?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/be-my-valentine) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/be-my-valentine?window=all) Price · $4.08 · 6.28 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $3.67 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.83% · 8,571 openings, odds method Variance · 19.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 82.58% ±28.53 896 openings 7 days · 89.00% ±10.11 7,140 openings 30 days · 88.83% ±9.22 8,571 openings since tracking started · 88.83% ±9.22 8,571 openings 53.5% 82.8% 112.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/be-my-valentine?window=24h) | 896 | 82.58% ±28.5 | −0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/be-my-valentine?window=7d) | 7,140 | 89.00% ±10.1 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/be-my-valentine) | 8,571 | 88.83% ±9.22 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/be-my-valentine?window=all) | 8,571 | 88.83% ±9.22 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,873 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Five-SeveN \| Kami (Factory New) (909 Pattern) (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new-909-pattern-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $325 500 gems | 22.1% | 23 | 22.2 | 1.04× | | [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $56.26 86.55 gems | 15.3% | 86 | 88.7 | 0.97× | | [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $35.20 54.16 gems | 12.0% | 106 | 110.9 | 0.96× | | [M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $24.38 37.5 gems | 13.3% | 160 | 177.5 | 0.90× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $8.42 12.96 gems | 11.5% | 458 | 443.7 | 1.03× | | [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $6.29 9.68 gems | 8.6% | 438 | 443.7 | 0.99× | | [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $3.81 5.86 gems | 5.2% | 502 | 443.7 | 1.13× | | [MAC-10 \| Aloha (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-aloha-factory-new) | 10.5% | $1.81 2.78 gems | 5.2% | 927 | 931.7 | 0.99× | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Broken Heart graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-broken-heart) | 70.0% | $0.36 0.56 gems | 6.9% | 6,173 | 6211.1 | 0.99× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New) (909 Pattern) (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new-909-pattern-factory-new) Hidden $4.08 6.28 gems $325 500 gems 79.62x 2026-11-11 21:20 UTC [Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New) (909 Pattern) (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new-909-pattern-factory-new) Hidden $4.08 6.28 gems $325 500 gems 79.62x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC [Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New) (909 Pattern) (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new-909-pattern-factory-new) [m1sa](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/m1sa) $4.08 6.28 gems $325 500 gems 79.62x 2026-11-10 22:16 UTC [Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New) (909 Pattern) (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new-909-pattern-factory-new) [paris0743](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/paris0743) $4.08 6.28 gems $325 500 gems 79.62x 2026-11-10 04:21 UTC [Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New) (909 Pattern) (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new-909-pattern-factory-new) Hidden $4.08 6.28 gems $325 500 gems 79.62x 2026-11-10 01:45 UTC [Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New) (909 Pattern) (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new-909-pattern-factory-new) Hidden $4.08 6.28 gems $325 500 gems 79.62x 2026-11-08 23:31 UTC [Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New) (909 Pattern) (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new-909-pattern-factory-new) Hidden $4.08 6.28 gems $325 500 gems 79.62x 2026-11-08 20:22 UTC [Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New) (909 Pattern) (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new-909-pattern-factory-new) [Stariks](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Stariks) $4.08 6.28 gems $325 500 gems 79.62x 2026-11-08 00:44 UTC [Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New) (909 Pattern) (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new-909-pattern-factory-new) Hidden $4.08 6.28 gems $325 500 gems 79.62x 2026-11-07 21:51 UTC [Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New) (909 Pattern) (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new-909-pattern-factory-new) Hidden $4.08 6.28 gems $325 500 gems 79.62x 2026-11-07 21:40 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=be-my-valentine) [Sealed Graffiti | Broken Heart graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-broken-heart) Hidden $4.08 6.28 gems $0.36 0.56 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 23:21 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-factory-new) Hidden $4.08 6.28 gems $8.42 12.96 gems 2.06x 2026-11-11 23:21 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Broken Heart graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-broken-heart) Hidden $4.08 6.28 gems $0.36 0.56 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 23:21 UTC [MAC-10 | Aloha (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-aloha-factory-new) Hidden $4.08 6.28 gems $1.81 2.78 gems 0.44x 2026-11-11 23:21 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Broken Heart graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-broken-heart) Hidden $4.08 6.28 gems $0.36 0.56 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 23:21 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Broken Heart graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-broken-heart) [forlife187](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/forlife187) $4.08 6.28 gems $0.36 0.56 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 23:21 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-factory-new) Hidden $4.08 6.28 gems $8.42 12.96 gems 2.06x 2026-11-11 23:00 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Broken Heart graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-broken-heart) [AlpinLoot](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/AlpinLoot) $4.08 6.28 gems $0.36 0.56 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 23:00 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Broken Heart graffiti](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-broken-heart) Hidden $4.08 6.28 gems $0.36 0.56 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 22:54 UTC [Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-factory-new) Hidden $4.08 6.28 gems $6.29 9.68 gems 1.54x 2026-11-11 22:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $4.08 | 89.99% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 70.2% classified 12.3% covert 2.0% red 5.0% mil spec 10.5% best hit $325 (79.62x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt