--- title: "Beaver Nickle case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Beaver Nickle ($54.95) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 8 items with odds, observed 87.01% over 767 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/beaver-nickle rendered: 2026-11-11T13:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Beaver Nickle](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/beaver-nickle) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Beaver Nickle A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/beaver-nickle?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/beaver-nickle?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/beaver-nickle) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/beaver-nickle?window=all) Price · $54.95 · 84.54 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $49.45 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.01% · 767 openings, odds method Variance · 12.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 40 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 70 openings · below min 7 days · 96.07% ±28.43 608 openings 30 days · 87.01% ±25.31 767 openings since tracking started · 87.01% ±25.31 767 openings -0.5% 82.3% 165.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/beaver-nickle?window=24h) | 70 | 80.44% ±83.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/beaver-nickle?window=7d) | 608 | 96.07% ±28.4 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/beaver-nickle) | 767 | 87.01% ±25.3 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/beaver-nickle?window=all) | 767 | 87.01% ±25.3 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 782 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,452 2,233 gems | 14.7% | 2 | 3.9 | 0.51× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $1,254 1,929 gems | 12.7% | 2 | 3.9 | 0.51× | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,127 1,735 gems | 11.4% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.77× | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,032 1,587 gems | 10.4% | 5 | 3.9 | 1.28× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $832 1,280 gems | 8.4% | 5 | 3.9 | 1.28× | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $440 677 gems | 31.1% | 33 | 27.4 | 1.21× | | [SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Factory New) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $139 213 gems | 11.2% | 29 | 31.3 | 0.93× | | [Sticker \| Rat Pack sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rat-pack) | 90.0% | $0.03 0.04 gems | 0.0% | 703 | 703.8 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $54.95 84.54 gems $1,452 2,233 gems 26.42x 2026-11-07 19:27 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $54.95 84.54 gems $1,452 2,233 gems 26.42x 2026-11-05 18:21 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $54.95 84.54 gems $1,254 1,929 gems 22.81x 2026-11-06 09:35 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $54.95 84.54 gems $1,254 1,929 gems 22.81x 2026-11-05 18:21 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) [Bottavious](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Bottavious) $54.95 84.54 gems $1,127 1,735 gems 20.52x 2026-11-10 18:55 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $54.95 84.54 gems $1,127 1,735 gems 20.52x 2026-11-06 08:37 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $54.95 84.54 gems $1,127 1,735 gems 20.52x 2026-11-05 18:22 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) Hidden $54.95 84.54 gems $1,032 1,587 gems 18.78x 2026-11-09 23:43 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) Hidden $54.95 84.54 gems $1,032 1,587 gems 18.78x 2026-11-07 22:24 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) [Kogo](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Kogo) $54.95 84.54 gems $1,032 1,587 gems 18.78x 2026-11-05 22:55 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=beaver-nickle) [Sticker | Rat Pack sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rat-pack) Hidden $54.95 84.54 gems $0.03 0.04 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 05:35 UTC [Sticker | Rat Pack sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rat-pack) Hidden $54.95 84.54 gems $0.03 0.04 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 05:35 UTC [Sticker | Rat Pack sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rat-pack) Hidden $54.95 84.54 gems $0.03 0.04 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 05:35 UTC [Sticker | Rat Pack sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rat-pack) Hidden $54.95 84.54 gems $0.03 0.04 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 05:35 UTC [Sticker | Rat Pack sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rat-pack) Hidden $54.95 84.54 gems $0.03 0.04 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 05:35 UTC [Sticker | Rat Pack sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rat-pack) [BolpyFR](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/BolpyFR) $54.95 84.54 gems $0.03 0.04 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 05:35 UTC [Sticker | Rat Pack sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rat-pack) Hidden $54.95 84.54 gems $0.03 0.04 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 04:30 UTC [Sticker | Rat Pack sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rat-pack) Hidden $54.95 84.54 gems $0.03 0.04 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 04:30 UTC [Sticker | Rat Pack sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rat-pack) Hidden $54.95 84.54 gems $0.03 0.04 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 04:30 UTC [Sticker | Rat Pack sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rat-pack) Hidden $54.95 84.54 gems $0.03 0.04 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 04:30 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $54.95 | 89.99% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.0% extraordinary 0.5% legendary 0.5% epic 0.5% classified 3.5% Classified 4.0% High Grade 90.0% best hit $1,452 (26.42x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt