--- title: "Big Fish case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Big Fish ($23.82) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 9 items with odds, observed 94.99% over 523 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/big-fish rendered: 2026-11-11T19:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Big Fish](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/big-fish) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Big Fish A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/big-fish?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/big-fish?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/big-fish) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/big-fish?window=all) Price · $23.82 · 36.65 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $21.44 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.99% · 523 openings, odds method Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 34.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 36.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 82 openings · below min 7 days · 97.02% ±7.54 432 openings 30 days · 94.99% ±6.85 523 openings since tracking started · 94.99% ±6.85 523 openings 76.5% 94.5% 112.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/big-fish?window=24h) | 82 | 94.61% ±17.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/big-fish?window=7d) | 432 | 97.02% ±7.54 | +1.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/big-fish) | 523 | 94.99% ±6.85 | +1.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/big-fish?window=all) | 523 | 94.99% ±6.85 | +1.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 527 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $182 280 gems | 2.5% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× | | [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $56.51 86.94 gems | 9.8% | 25 | 19.5 | 1.28× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) | 16.0% | $37.35 57.46 gems | 27.9% | 91 | 84.3 | 1.08× | | [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) | 14.0% | $34.59 53.22 gems | 22.6% | 75 | 73.8 | 1.02× | | [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-field-tested) | 10.0% | $31.22 48.03 gems | 14.6% | 50 | 52.7 | 0.95× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 20.0% | $24.08 37.05 gems | 22.5% | 113 | 105.4 | 1.07× | | [Tec-9 \| VariCamo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-varicamo-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.21 0.33 gems | 0.1% | 49 | 52.7 | 0.93× | | [Sawed-Off \| Spirit Board (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-spirit-board-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.11 0.17 gems | 0.1% | 68 | 79.0 | 0.86× | | [PP-Bizon \| Night Ops (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-night-ops-factory-new) | 11.0% | $0.04 0.06 gems | 0.0% | 55 | 58.0 | 0.95× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=big-fish) [StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) Hidden $23.82 36.65 gems $37.35 57.46 gems 1.57x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC [M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) Hidden $23.82 36.65 gems $34.59 53.22 gems 1.45x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) Hidden $23.82 36.65 gems $37.35 57.46 gems 1.57x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) Hidden $23.82 36.65 gems $37.35 57.46 gems 1.57x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC [Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-spirit-board-factory-new) Hidden $23.82 36.65 gems $0.11 0.17 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) Hidden $23.82 36.65 gems $37.35 57.46 gems 1.57x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC [M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) Hidden $23.82 36.65 gems $34.59 53.22 gems 1.45x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) Hidden $23.82 36.65 gems $24.08 37.05 gems 1.01x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC [Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-spirit-board-factory-new) Hidden $23.82 36.65 gems $0.11 0.17 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC [PP-Bizon | Night Ops (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-night-ops-factory-new) Hidden $23.82 36.65 gems $0.04 0.06 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $23.82 | 89.99% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 28.0% Classified 16.0% Legendary 20.0% industrial 21.0% Rare 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt