--- title: "Black Beard case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Black Beard ($87.04) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 8 items with odds, observed 89.45% over 339 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-beard rendered: 2026-11-11T20:37Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Black Beard](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-beard) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Black Beard A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-beard?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-beard?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-beard) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-beard?window=all) Price · $87.04 · 134 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $78.33 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.45% · 339 openings, odds method Variance · 5.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 46 openings · below min 7 days · 98.22% ±27.75 271 openings 30 days · 89.45% ±24.81 339 openings since tracking started · 89.45% ±24.81 339 openings 44.5% 112.5% 180.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-beard?window=24h) | 46 | 112.28% ±67.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-beard?window=7d) | 271 | 98.22% ±27.8 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-beard) | 339 | 89.45% ±24.8 | −0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-beard?window=all) | 339 | 89.45% ±24.8 | −0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 351 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 50 | $1,268 1,951 gems | 32.4% | 6 | 7.0 | 0.85× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $552 850 gems | 21.2% | 10 | 10.5 | 0.95× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $293 450 gems | 18.7% | 21 | 17.5 | 1.20× | | [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 10.0% | $114 175 gems | 14.5% | 48 | 35.1 | 1.37× | | [Nova \| Baroque Orange (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-baroque-orange-factory-new) | 10.0% | $56.85 87.46 gems | 7.3% | 17 | 35.1 | 0.48× | | [Dual Berettas \| Pyre (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-pyre-factory-new) | 20.0% | $17.93 27.58 gems | 4.6% | 62 | 70.2 | 0.88× | | [R8 Revolver \| Canal Spray (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-canal-spray-factory-new) | 25.0% | $3.18 4.89 gems | 1.0% | 86 | 87.7 | 0.98× | | [Sticker \| Sharks Esports (Foil) \| Stockholm 2021 sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sharks-esports-foil-stockholm-2021) | 25.0% | $1.23 1.89 gems | 0.4% | 101 | 87.8 | 1.15× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $87.04 134 gems $1,268 1,951 gems 14.57x 2026-11-11 18:12 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [Helqxz](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Helqxz) $87.04 134 gems $1,268 1,951 gems 14.57x 2026-11-10 23:43 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $87.04 134 gems $1,268 1,951 gems 14.57x 2026-11-10 19:17 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [RMV1207](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/RMV1207) $87.04 134 gems $1,268 1,951 gems 14.57x 2026-11-09 17:58 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $87.04 134 gems $1,268 1,951 gems 14.57x 2026-11-06 13:34 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $87.04 134 gems $1,268 1,951 gems 14.57x 2026-11-05 21:28 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $87.04 134 gems $552 850 gems 6.35x 2026-11-10 21:32 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $87.04 134 gems $552 850 gems 6.35x 2026-11-09 13:04 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $87.04 134 gems $552 850 gems 6.35x 2026-11-09 13:03 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-lore-factory-new) Hidden $87.04 134 gems $552 850 gems 6.35x 2026-11-08 18:01 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=black-beard) [Dual Berettas | Pyre (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-pyre-factory-new) Hidden $87.04 134 gems $17.93 27.58 gems 0.21x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC [Nova | Baroque Orange (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-baroque-orange-factory-new) Hidden $87.04 134 gems $56.85 87.46 gems 0.65x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC [R8 Revolver | Canal Spray (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-canal-spray-factory-new) Hidden $87.04 134 gems $3.18 4.89 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $87.04 134 gems $293 450 gems 3.36x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC [Dual Berettas | Pyre (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-pyre-factory-new) Hidden $87.04 134 gems $17.93 27.58 gems 0.21x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC [R8 Revolver | Canal Spray (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-canal-spray-factory-new) [CodeWILDCS 2K LB](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/CodeWILDCS%202K%20LB) $87.04 134 gems $3.18 4.89 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC [R8 Revolver | Canal Spray (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-canal-spray-factory-new) Hidden $87.04 134 gems $3.18 4.89 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:12 UTC [Dual Berettas | Pyre (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-pyre-factory-new) Hidden $87.04 134 gems $17.93 27.58 gems 0.21x 2026-11-11 18:12 UTC [Sticker | Sharks Esports (Foil) | Stockholm 2021 sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sharks-esports-foil-stockholm-2021) Hidden $87.04 134 gems $1.23 1.89 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:12 UTC [R8 Revolver | Canal Spray (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-canal-spray-factory-new) Hidden $87.04 134 gems $3.18 4.89 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:12 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $87.04 | 89.99% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 15.0% extraordinary 5.0% restricted 10.0% industrial 20.0% consumer 25.0% Legendary 25.0% best hit $1,268 (14.57x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt