--- title: "Black Hawk case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Black Hawk ($304.12) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 84.17% over 152 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-hawk rendered: 2026-11-11T15:43Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Black Hawk](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-hawk) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Black Hawk A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-hawk?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-hawk?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-hawk) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-hawk?window=all) Price · $304.12 · 468 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $273.70 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.17% · 152 openings, odds method Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 30.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 40.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 81.33% ±13.17 122 openings 30 days · 84.17% ±11.80 152 openings since tracking started · 84.17% ±11.80 152 openings 67.5% 82.0% 96.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-hawk?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-hawk?window=7d) | 122 | 81.33% ±13.2 | −1.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-hawk) | 152 | 84.17% ±11.8 | −1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-hawk?window=all) | 152 | 84.17% ±11.8 | −1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 152 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $509 783 gems | 27.9% | 21 | 22.8 | 0.92× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-black-laminate-well-worn) | 15.0% | $498 766 gems | 27.3% | 20 | 22.8 | 0.88× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-well-worn) | 15.0% | $428 658 gems | 23.5% | 28 | 22.8 | 1.23× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $386 594 gems | 21.2% | 16 | 22.8 | 0.70× | | [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) | 10.0% | $2.29 3.53 gems | 0.1% | 20 | 15.2 | 1.32× | | [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) | 15.0% | $1.53 2.35 gems | 0.1% | 27 | 22.8 | 1.18× | | [MP7 \| Prey (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-prey-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.64 0.99 gems | 0.0% | 20 | 22.8 | 0.88× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-minimal-wear) [Beljit](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Beljit) $304 468 gems $509 783 gems 1.67x 2026-11-10 06:21 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-minimal-wear) Hidden $304 468 gems $509 783 gems 1.67x 2026-11-08 09:26 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-minimal-wear) Hidden $304 468 gems $509 783 gems 1.67x 2026-11-07 19:36 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-minimal-wear) Hidden $304 468 gems $509 783 gems 1.67x 2026-11-07 19:36 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-minimal-wear) Hidden $304 468 gems $509 783 gems 1.67x 2026-11-07 19:31 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-minimal-wear) [Sieras](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Sieras) $304 468 gems $509 783 gems 1.67x 2026-11-07 13:14 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-minimal-wear) Hidden $304 468 gems $509 783 gems 1.67x 2026-11-07 12:31 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-minimal-wear) Hidden $304 468 gems $509 783 gems 1.67x 2026-11-06 23:15 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-minimal-wear) Hidden $304 468 gems $509 783 gems 1.67x 2026-11-06 23:15 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-minimal-wear) Hidden $304 468 gems $509 783 gems 1.67x 2026-11-06 23:15 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=black-hawk) [M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) Hidden $304 468 gems $2.29 3.53 gems 0.01x 2026-11-10 14:11 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Night (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-well-worn) Hidden $304 468 gems $428 658 gems 1.41x 2026-11-10 14:11 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Night (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-well-worn) Hidden $304 468 gems $428 658 gems 1.41x 2026-11-10 14:11 UTC [MP7 | Prey (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-prey-factory-new) Hidden $304 468 gems $0.64 0.99 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 14:11 UTC [M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) Hidden $304 468 gems $1.53 2.35 gems 0.01x 2026-11-10 14:11 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-minimal-wear) [trickytrash](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/trickytrash) $304 468 gems $386 594 gems 1.27x 2026-11-10 14:11 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-minimal-wear) Hidden $304 468 gems $386 594 gems 1.27x 2026-11-10 06:21 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-black-laminate-well-worn) Hidden $304 468 gems $498 766 gems 1.64x 2026-11-10 06:21 UTC [M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) Hidden $304 468 gems $2.29 3.53 gems 0.01x 2026-11-10 06:21 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-minimal-wear) [Beljit](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Beljit) $304 468 gems $509 783 gems 1.67x 2026-11-10 06:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $304 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 15.0% covert knife 15.0% gold 15.0% covert 15.0% mil spec 10.0% #8847ff 15.0% gray 15.0% best hit $509 (1.67x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt