--- title: "Black Market case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Black Market ($95.73) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 5 items with odds, observed 125.92% over 74 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-market rendered: 2026-11-11T21:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Black Market](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-market) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Black Market A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-market?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-market?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-market) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-market?window=all) Price · $95.73 · 147 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $86.15 from 5 items Observed RTP, 30d · 125.92% · 74 openings, odds method Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 32 openings · below min 7 days · 74 openings · below min 30 days · 74 openings · below min since tracking started · 74 openings · below min 63.0% 108.7% 154.5% **Small sample.** 74 openings and 14.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-market?window=24h) | 32 | 106.03% ±42.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-market?window=7d) | 74 | 125.92% ±27.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-market) | 74 | 125.92% ±27.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-market?window=all) | 74 | 125.92% ±27.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 120 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-black-laminate-factory-new) | 20.0% | $306 471 gems | 71.0% | 30 | 24.0 | 1.25× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $109 168 gems | 25.3% | 31 | 24.0 | 1.29× | | [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $15.30 23.54 gems | 3.6% | 20 | 24.0 | 0.83× | | [Galil AR \| Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.25 0.39 gems | 0.1% | 20 | 24.0 | 0.83× | | [MP9 \| Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.12 0.18 gems | 0.0% | 19 | 24.0 | 0.79× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=black-market) [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-battle-scarred) Hidden $95.73 147 gems $109 168 gems 1.14x 2026-11-11 02:42 UTC [Galil AR | Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-factory-new) Hidden $95.73 147 gems $0.25 0.39 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:42 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-battle-scarred) Hidden $95.73 147 gems $109 168 gems 1.14x 2026-11-11 02:42 UTC [★ Bayonet | Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-black-laminate-factory-new) [GetDGN.com | Code: DGN](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/GetDGN.com%20%7C%20Code%3A%20DGN) $95.73 147 gems $306 471 gems 3.20x 2026-11-11 02:42 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-battle-scarred) Hidden $95.73 147 gems $109 168 gems 1.14x 2026-11-11 02:42 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-battle-scarred) Hidden $95.73 147 gems $109 168 gems 1.14x 2026-11-11 02:42 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-battle-scarred) Hidden $95.73 147 gems $109 168 gems 1.14x 2026-11-11 02:42 UTC [AK-47 | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-battle-scarred) [GetDGN.com | Code: DGN](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/GetDGN.com%20%7C%20Code%3A%20DGN) $95.73 147 gems $15.30 23.54 gems 0.16x 2026-11-11 02:42 UTC [AK-47 | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-battle-scarred) Hidden $95.73 147 gems $15.30 23.54 gems 0.16x 2026-11-11 02:39 UTC [AK-47 | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-battle-scarred) Hidden $95.73 147 gems $15.30 23.54 gems 0.16x 2026-11-11 02:39 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $95.73 | 90.00% | 5 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 20.0% extraordinary 20.0% mil spec 40.0% Rare 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt