--- title: "Black Pearl case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Black Pearl ($198.96) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds, observed 58.86% over 310 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-pearl rendered: 2026-11-11T19:20Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-pearl) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Black Pearl A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-pearl?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-pearl?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-pearl) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-pearl?window=all) Price · $198.96 · 306 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $179.06 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 58.86% · 310 openings, odds method Variance · 7.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 14 openings · below min 7 days · 55.97% ±33.66 236 openings 30 days · 58.86% ±29.37 310 openings since tracking started · 58.86% ±29.37 310 openings -0.5% 82.5% 165.5% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (29.49% – 88.23%, 310 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-pearl?window=24h) | 14 | 26.68% ±138.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-pearl?window=7d) | 236 | 55.97% ±33.7 | −2.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-pearl) | 310 | 58.86% ±29.4 | −2.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-pearl?window=all) | 310 | 58.86% ±29.4 | −2.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 320 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 33 | $2,339 3,599 gems | 39.2% | 5 | 9.6 | 0.52× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $2,110 3,246 gems | 35.4% | 6 | 9.6 | 0.63× | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-unhinged-factory-new) | 10.0% | $274 422 gems | 15.3% | 33 | 32.0 | 1.03× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) | 10.0% | $152 234 gems | 8.5% | 29 | 32.0 | 0.91× | | [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-factory-new) | 30.0% | $5.54 8.53 gems | 0.9% | 108 | 96.0 | 1.13× | | [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) | 44.0% | $2.89 4.44 gems | 0.7% | 139 | 140.8 | 0.99× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $199 306 gems $2,339 3,599 gems 11.76x 2026-11-10 15:07 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [batapepe](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/batapepe) $199 306 gems $2,339 3,599 gems 11.76x 2026-11-10 14:36 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $199 306 gems $2,339 3,599 gems 11.76x 2026-11-10 14:36 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $199 306 gems $2,339 3,599 gems 11.76x 2026-11-04 02:22 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $199 306 gems $2,339 3,599 gems 11.76x 2026-11-02 23:22 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $199 306 gems $2,110 3,246 gems 10.61x 2026-11-10 15:14 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $199 306 gems $2,110 3,246 gems 10.61x 2026-11-10 14:56 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $199 306 gems $2,110 3,246 gems 10.61x 2026-11-09 22:38 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $199 306 gems $2,110 3,246 gems 10.61x 2026-11-05 12:44 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $199 306 gems $2,110 3,246 gems 10.61x 2026-11-04 02:31 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=black-pearl) [★ Bowie Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $199 306 gems $152 234 gems 0.76x 2026-11-11 18:01 UTC [M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) Hidden $199 306 gems $2.89 4.44 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:01 UTC [M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-factory-new) Hidden $199 306 gems $5.54 8.53 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:01 UTC [M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) Hidden $199 306 gems $2.89 4.44 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:01 UTC [M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-factory-new) Hidden $199 306 gems $5.54 8.53 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 15:23 UTC [M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-factory-new) Hidden $199 306 gems $5.54 8.53 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 15:23 UTC [M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) Hidden $199 306 gems $2.89 4.44 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:23 UTC [M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) Hidden $199 306 gems $2.89 4.44 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:23 UTC [★ Broken Fang Gloves | Unhinged (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-unhinged-factory-new) Hidden $199 306 gems $274 422 gems 1.38x 2026-11-11 15:23 UTC [M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) [news](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/news) $199 306 gems $2.89 4.44 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $199 | 90.00% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.0% legendary 13.0% covert knife 10.0% restricted 30.0% mil spec 44.0% best hit $2,339 (11.76x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt