--- title: "Black Swan case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Black Swan ($169.93) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds, observed 83.97% over 728 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-swan rendered: 2026-11-11T19:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Black Swan](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-swan) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Black Swan A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-swan?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-swan?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-swan) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-swan?window=all) Price · $169.93 · 261 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $152.94 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.97% · 728 openings, odds method Variance · 9.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 54 openings · below min 7 days · 88.01% ±24.24 614 openings 30 days · 83.97% ±22.26 728 openings since tracking started · 83.97% ±22.26 728 openings 61.0% 157.3% 253.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-swan?window=24h) | 54 | 171.22% ±81.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-swan?window=7d) | 614 | 88.01% ±24.2 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-swan) | 728 | 83.97% ±22.3 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/black-swan?window=all) | 728 | 83.97% ±22.3 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 802 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $2,322 3,573 gems | 75.9% | 40 | 40.1 | 1.00× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $705 1,084 gems | 23.0% | 50 | 40.1 | 1.25× | | [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) | 20.0% | $4.67 7.18 gems | 0.6% | 150 | 160.4 | 0.94× | | [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) | 20.0% | $1.41 2.17 gems | 0.2% | 155 | 160.4 | 0.97× | | [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) | 25.0% | $1.23 1.89 gems | 0.2% | 191 | 200.5 | 0.95× | | [Glock-18 \| Winterized (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-factory-new) | 25.0% | $0.27 0.41 gems | 0.0% | 216 | 200.5 | 1.08× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $170 261 gems $2,322 3,573 gems 13.67x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $170 261 gems $2,322 3,573 gems 13.67x 2026-11-11 18:49 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $170 261 gems $2,322 3,573 gems 13.67x 2026-11-11 18:49 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $170 261 gems $2,322 3,573 gems 13.67x 2026-11-11 18:49 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $170 261 gems $2,322 3,573 gems 13.67x 2026-11-10 19:17 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $170 261 gems $2,322 3,573 gems 13.67x 2026-11-10 19:17 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $170 261 gems $2,322 3,573 gems 13.67x 2026-11-10 19:17 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $170 261 gems $2,322 3,573 gems 13.67x 2026-11-10 19:17 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $170 261 gems $2,322 3,573 gems 13.67x 2026-11-10 19:15 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $170 261 gems $2,322 3,573 gems 13.67x 2026-11-10 19:12 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=black-swan) [Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) Hidden $170 261 gems $4.67 7.18 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:05 UTC [Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) Hidden $170 261 gems $4.67 7.18 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:05 UTC [USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) Hidden $170 261 gems $1.41 2.17 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:05 UTC [Glock-18 | Winterized (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-factory-new) Hidden $170 261 gems $0.27 0.41 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:05 UTC [M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) Hidden $170 261 gems $1.23 1.89 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:05 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-factory-new) [JackedGambles](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/JackedGambles) $170 261 gems $705 1,084 gems 4.15x 2026-11-11 19:05 UTC [M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) Hidden $170 261 gems $1.23 1.89 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC [Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) Hidden $170 261 gems $4.67 7.18 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC [USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) Hidden $170 261 gems $1.41 2.17 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC [M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) Hidden $170 261 gems $1.23 1.89 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:51 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $170 | 90.00% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 5.0% covert 5.0% classified 20.0% Restricted 20.0% #8847ff 25.0% milspec 25.0% best hit $2,322 (13.67x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt