--- title: "Blackout case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Blackout ($20.35) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 93.02% over 374 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/blackout rendered: 2026-11-11T13:50Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Blackout](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/blackout) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Blackout A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/blackout?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/blackout?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/blackout) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/blackout?window=all) Price · $20.35 · 31.31 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $18.32 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.02% · 374 openings, odds method Variance · 2.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 65.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 56 openings · below min 7 days · 91.07% ±16.39 330 openings 30 days · 93.02% ±15.39 374 openings since tracking started · 93.02% ±15.39 374 openings 74.0% 123.3% 172.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/blackout?window=24h) | 56 | 132.29% ±39.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/blackout?window=7d) | 330 | 91.07% ±16.4 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/blackout) | 374 | 93.02% ±15.4 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/blackout?window=all) | 374 | 93.02% ±15.4 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 377 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $672 1,033 gems | 3.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $91.85 141 gems | 24.6% | 14 | 18.5 | 0.76× | | [AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $43.17 66.41 gems | 35.4% | 57 | 56.5 | 1.01× | | [Desert Eagle \| Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-factory-new) | 15.0% | $28.02 43.1 gems | 22.9% | 70 | 56.5 | 1.24× | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 15.0% | $13.79 21.21 gems | 11.3% | 46 | 56.5 | 0.81× | | [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) | 15.0% | $2.03 3.12 gems | 1.7% | 58 | 56.5 | 1.03× | | [Galil AR \| Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.39 0.6 gems | 0.3% | 65 | 56.5 | 1.15× | | [MP9 \| Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.18 0.28 gems | 0.2% | 66 | 75.4 | 0.88× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $20.35 31.31 gems $672 1,033 gems 33.00x 2026-11-10 15:40 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=blackout) [Galil AR | Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-factory-new) Hidden $20.35 31.31 gems $0.39 0.6 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 05:51 UTC [Desert Eagle | Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-factory-new) Hidden $20.35 31.31 gems $28.02 43.1 gems 1.38x 2026-11-11 05:51 UTC [Desert Eagle | Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-factory-new) Hidden $20.35 31.31 gems $28.02 43.1 gems 1.38x 2026-11-11 05:51 UTC [USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) Hidden $20.35 31.31 gems $2.03 3.12 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 05:51 UTC [Galil AR | Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-factory-new) Hidden $20.35 31.31 gems $0.39 0.6 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 05:51 UTC [USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) Hidden $20.35 31.31 gems $2.03 3.12 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 05:51 UTC [Galil AR | Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-factory-new) Hidden $20.35 31.31 gems $0.39 0.6 gems 0.02x 2026-11-10 17:23 UTC [Desert Eagle | Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-factory-new) Hidden $20.35 31.31 gems $28.02 43.1 gems 1.38x 2026-11-10 17:23 UTC [Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $20.35 31.31 gems $13.79 21.21 gems 0.68x 2026-11-10 17:23 UTC [AWP | Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-minimal-wear) Hidden $20.35 31.31 gems $43.17 66.41 gems 2.12x 2026-11-10 17:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $20.35 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 0.1% mil spec 19.9% classified 15.0% industrial 15.0% red 15.0% Restricted 15.0% Rare 20.0% best hit $672 (33.00x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt