--- title: "Blue Balls case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Blue Balls ($3.17) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.85% from 5 items with odds, observed 88.01% over 17.1K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/blue-balls rendered: 2026-11-11T16:53Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Blue Balls](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/blue-balls) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Blue Balls A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/blue-balls?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/blue-balls?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/blue-balls) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/blue-balls?window=all) Price · $3.17 · 4.88 gems Advertised RTP · 89.85% · EV $2.85 from 5 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.01% · 17.1K openings, odds method Variance · 9.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 86.25% ±12.14 2,356 openings 7 days · 87.57% ±4.74 15.4K openings 30 days · 88.01% ±4.51 17.1K openings since tracking started · 88.01% ±4.51 17.1K openings 73.5% 86.3% 99.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/blue-balls?window=24h) | 2,356 | 86.25% ±12.1 | −0.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/blue-balls?window=7d) | 15.4K | 87.57% ±4.74 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/blue-balls) | 17.1K | 88.01% ±4.51 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/blue-balls?window=all) | 17.1K | 88.01% ±4.51 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 17.2K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $54.63 84.04 gems | 47.9% | 419 | 429.2 | 0.98× | | [USP-S \| Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $21.00 32.31 gems | 18.4% | 424 | 429.2 | 0.99× | | [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $16.58 25.5 gems | 14.5% | 431 | 429.2 | 1.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $16.19 24.9 gems | 14.2% | 411 | 429.2 | 0.96× | | [Sticker \| Baited sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baited) | 90.0% | $0.16 0.24 gems | 4.9% | 15,482 | 15450.3 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=blue-balls) [Sticker | Baited sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baited) Hidden $3.17 4.88 gems $0.16 0.24 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:53 UTC [USP-S | Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-factory-new) Hidden $3.17 4.88 gems $21.00 32.31 gems 6.62x 2026-11-11 16:53 UTC [Sticker | Baited sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baited) Hidden $3.17 4.88 gems $0.16 0.24 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:53 UTC [Sticker | Baited sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baited) Hidden $3.17 4.88 gems $0.16 0.24 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:53 UTC [Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) Hidden $3.17 4.88 gems $54.63 84.04 gems 17.22x 2026-11-11 16:53 UTC [Sticker | Baited sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baited) [SandoB. #YNWA](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/SandoB.%20%23YNWA) $3.17 4.88 gems $0.16 0.24 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:53 UTC [Sticker | Baited sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baited) Hidden $3.17 4.88 gems $0.16 0.24 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC [Sticker | Baited sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baited) Hidden $3.17 4.88 gems $0.16 0.24 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC [Sticker | Baited sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baited) Hidden $3.17 4.88 gems $0.16 0.24 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC [Sticker | Baited sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baited) Hidden $3.17 4.88 gems $0.16 0.24 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $3.17 | 89.85% | 5 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 7.5% mil spec 2.5% High Grade 90.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.85 on average: an expected loss of $10.15 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt