--- title: "Brain Fog case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Brain Fog ($15.70) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 19 items with odds, observed 94.86% over 4,001 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/brain-fog rendered: 2026-11-11T18:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Brain Fog](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/brain-fog) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Brain Fog A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/brain-fog?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/brain-fog?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/brain-fog) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/brain-fog?window=all) Price · $15.70 · 24.16 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $14.13 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.86% · 4,001 openings, odds method Variance · 14.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 27 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 88.03% ±37.10 411 openings 7 days · 93.91% ±13.10 3,295 openings 30 days · 94.86% ±11.89 4,001 openings since tracking started · 94.86% ±11.89 4,001 openings 50.5% 88.3% 126.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/brain-fog?window=24h) | 411 | 88.03% ±37.1 | −0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/brain-fog?window=7d) | 3,295 | 93.91% ±13.1 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/brain-fog) | 4,001 | 94.86% ±11.9 | +0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/brain-fog?window=all) | 4,001 | 94.86% ±11.9 | +0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,073 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 20,000 | $2,902 4,465 gems | 1.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,177 1,811 gems | 0.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $995 1,531 gems | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $845 1,300 gems | 1.5% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Diamondback (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-diamondback-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $526 810 gems | 27.9% | 43 | 30.5 | 1.41× | | [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $486 748 gems | 1.7% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.49× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $351 540 gems | 2.5% | 4 | 4.1 | 0.98× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $293 450 gems | 1.0% | 4 | 2.0 | 1.96× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $150 230 gems | 5.3% | 16 | 20.4 | 0.79× | | [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $131 201 gems | 20.4% | 81 | 89.6 | 0.90× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $63.92 98.34 gems | 4.5% | 39 | 40.7 | 0.96× | | [Sticker \| Swag (Foil) sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-swag-foil) | 1 in 67 | $52.00 80 gems | 5.5% | 59 | 61.1 | 0.97× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $26.21 40.32 gems | 3.7% | 71 | 81.5 | 0.87× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Undertow (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-undertow-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $26.16 40.24 gems | 3.7% | 86 | 81.5 | 1.06× | | [USP-S \| Stainless (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $17.69 27.21 gems | 6.3% | 207 | 203.6 | 1.02× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $14.95 23 gems | 5.3% | 224 | 203.6 | 1.10× | | [Sticker \| paiN Gaming (Holo) \| Stockholm 2021 sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-pain-gaming-holo-stockholm-2021) | 1 in 20 | $11.38 17.51 gems | 4.0% | 190 | 203.6 | 0.93× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $9.89 15.21 gems | 2.8% | 171 | 162.9 | 1.05× | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Goofy (Cash Green) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-goofy-cash-green) | 70.8% | $0.26 0.4 gems | 1.3% | 2,877 | 2883.7 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-diamondback-factory-new) Hidden $15.70 24.16 gems $526 810 gems 33.51x 2026-11-11 17:53 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-diamondback-factory-new) Hidden $15.70 24.16 gems $526 810 gems 33.51x 2026-11-11 08:37 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-diamondback-factory-new) Hidden $15.70 24.16 gems $526 810 gems 33.51x 2026-11-11 03:08 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-diamondback-factory-new) Hidden $15.70 24.16 gems $526 810 gems 33.51x 2026-11-11 02:43 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-diamondback-factory-new) Hidden $15.70 24.16 gems $526 810 gems 33.51x 2026-11-10 23:29 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-diamondback-factory-new) Hidden $15.70 24.16 gems $526 810 gems 33.51x 2026-11-10 14:40 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-diamondback-factory-new) Hidden $15.70 24.16 gems $526 810 gems 33.51x 2026-11-10 14:01 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-diamondback-factory-new) Hidden $15.70 24.16 gems $526 810 gems 33.51x 2026-11-10 13:55 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-diamondback-factory-new) Hidden $15.70 24.16 gems $526 810 gems 33.51x 2026-11-09 16:41 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-diamondback-factory-new) Hidden $15.70 24.16 gems $526 810 gems 33.51x 2026-11-09 15:43 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=brain-fog) [Sealed Graffiti | Goofy (Cash Green) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-goofy-cash-green) Hidden $15.70 24.16 gems $0.26 0.4 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:29 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Goofy (Cash Green) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-goofy-cash-green) Hidden $15.70 24.16 gems $0.26 0.4 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:29 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Goofy (Cash Green) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-goofy-cash-green) Hidden $15.70 24.16 gems $0.26 0.4 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:29 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Goofy (Cash Green) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-goofy-cash-green) Hidden $15.70 24.16 gems $0.26 0.4 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:29 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Goofy (Cash Green) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-goofy-cash-green) Hidden $15.70 24.16 gems $0.26 0.4 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:29 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) [Danny](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Danny) $15.70 24.16 gems $14.95 23 gems 0.95x 2026-11-11 18:29 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Goofy (Cash Green) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-goofy-cash-green) Hidden $15.70 24.16 gems $0.26 0.4 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:28 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Goofy (Cash Green) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-goofy-cash-green) Hidden $15.70 24.16 gems $0.26 0.4 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:28 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Undertow (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-undertow-factory-new) Hidden $15.70 24.16 gems $26.16 40.24 gems 1.67x 2026-11-11 18:28 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.70 24.16 gems $14.95 23 gems 0.95x 2026-11-11 18:28 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $15.70 | 89.99% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 0.0% covert 6.2% legendary 0.0% restricted 0.0% extraordinary 0.8% sunny 0.1% Covert 0.5% classified 2.2% Classified 1.0% Exotic 1.5% Legendary 7.0% mil spec 5.0% Mythical 5.0% Base Grade 70.8% best hit $526 (33.51x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt