--- title: "Buckshot case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Buckshot ($22.31) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 12 items with odds, observed 83.22% over 888 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/buckshot rendered: 2026-11-11T15:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Buckshot](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/buckshot) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Buckshot A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/buckshot?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/buckshot?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/buckshot) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/buckshot?window=all) Price · $22.31 · 34.32 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $20.08 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.22% · 888 openings, odds method Variance · 6.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 75.95% ±46.77 114 openings 7 days · 77.05% ±18.64 718 openings 30 days · 83.22% ±16.76 888 openings since tracking started · 83.22% ±16.76 888 openings 28.5% 76.0% 123.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/buckshot?window=24h) | 114 | 75.95% ±46.8 | −0.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/buckshot?window=7d) | 718 | 77.05% ±18.6 | −1.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/buckshot) | 888 | 83.22% ±16.8 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/buckshot?window=all) | 888 | 83.22% ±16.8 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 892 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cinquedea-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $408 628 gems | 20.3% | 10 | 8.9 | 1.12× | | [Nova \| Modern Hunter (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-modern-hunter-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $249 383 gems | 24.8% | 16 | 17.8 | 0.90× | | [XM1014 \| Blaze Orange (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blaze-orange-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $139 214 gems | 13.9% | 13 | 17.8 | 0.73× | | [Sawed-Off \| Copper (Battle-Scarred) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-copper-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $81.25 125 gems | 8.1% | 22 | 17.8 | 1.23× | | [MAG-7 \| Counter Terrace (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-counter-terrace-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $67.57 104 gems | 10.1% | 18 | 26.8 | 0.67× | | [Nova \| Bloomstick (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $29.19 44.9 gems | 7.3% | 40 | 44.6 | 0.90× | | [XM1014 \| Banana Leaf (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-banana-leaf-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $17.17 26.41 gems | 4.3% | 37 | 44.6 | 0.83× | | [Sawed-Off \| Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-orange-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $9.75 15 gems | 3.4% | 64 | 62.4 | 1.02× | | [MAG-7 \| Hazard (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hazard-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $7.89 12.14 gems | 3.1% | 98 | 71.4 | 1.37× | | [Nova \| Antique (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-field-tested) | 10.0% | $5.75 8.84 gems | 2.9% | 86 | 89.2 | 0.96× | | [XM1014 \| Seasons (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-factory-new) | 20.0% | $1.67 2.57 gems | 1.7% | 181 | 178.4 | 1.01× | | [Sawed-Off \| Origami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-factory-new) | 35.0% | $0.12 0.18 gems | 0.2% | 307 | 312.2 | 0.98× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=buckshot) [Sawed-Off | Origami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-factory-new) Hidden $22.31 34.32 gems $0.12 0.18 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:08 UTC [Sawed-Off | Origami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-factory-new) Hidden $22.31 34.32 gems $0.12 0.18 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:08 UTC [XM1014 | Seasons (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-factory-new) Hidden $22.31 34.32 gems $1.67 2.57 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 15:08 UTC [MAG-7 | Hazard (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hazard-well-worn) Hidden $22.31 34.32 gems $7.89 12.14 gems 0.35x 2026-11-11 15:08 UTC [Sawed-Off | Origami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-factory-new) Hidden $22.31 34.32 gems $0.12 0.18 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:08 UTC [Sawed-Off | Origami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-factory-new) [Alboholics](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Alboholics) $22.31 34.32 gems $0.12 0.18 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:08 UTC [Sawed-Off | Origami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-factory-new) Hidden $22.31 34.32 gems $0.12 0.18 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:09 UTC [Sawed-Off | Origami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-factory-new) Hidden $22.31 34.32 gems $0.12 0.18 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 11:09 UTC [Nova | Modern Hunter (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-modern-hunter-factory-new) Hidden $22.31 34.32 gems $249 383 gems 11.15x 2026-11-11 11:09 UTC [XM1014 | Seasons (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-factory-new) [RipLibTard](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/RipLibTard) $22.31 34.32 gems $1.67 2.57 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 11:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $22.31 | 89.99% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 6.0% Mil Spec Grade 2.0% mil spec 48.0% other 2.0% Industrial Grade 5.0% #8847ff 7.0% #d32ee6 10.0% Mythical 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt