--- title: "Budget Baller case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Budget Baller ($2.25) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 6 items with odds, observed 87.67% over 17.4K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/budget-baller rendered: 2026-11-11T18:44Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Budget Baller](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/budget-baller) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Budget Baller A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/budget-baller?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/budget-baller?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/budget-baller) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/budget-baller?window=all) Price · $2.25 · 3.46 gems Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $2.02 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.67% · 17.4K openings, odds method Variance · 5.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 86.72% ±7.84 3,639 openings 7 days · 87.88% ±3.81 15.4K openings 30 days · 87.67% ±3.58 17.4K openings since tracking started · 87.67% ±3.58 17.4K openings 78.0% 86.5% 95.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/budget-baller?window=24h) | 3,639 | 86.72% ±7.84 | −0.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/budget-baller?window=7d) | 15.4K | 87.88% ±3.81 | −1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/budget-baller) | 17.4K | 87.67% ±3.58 | −1.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/budget-baller?window=all) | 17.4K | 87.67% ±3.58 | −1.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 17.8K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $27.94 42.99 gems | 27.6% | 346 | 356.5 | 0.97× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $20.28 31.2 gems | 20.0% | 338 | 356.5 | 0.95× | | [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $14.11 21.7 gems | 13.9% | 352 | 356.5 | 0.99× | | [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $11.86 18.25 gems | 11.7% | 343 | 356.5 | 0.96× | | [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $11.78 18.13 gems | 11.6% | 356 | 356.5 | 1.00× | | [Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-battle-scarred) | 90.0% | $0.34 0.52 gems | 15.0% | 16,090 | 16042.5 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=budget-baller) [Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.25 3.46 gems $0.34 0.52 gems 0.15x 2026-11-11 18:43 UTC [Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.25 3.46 gems $0.34 0.52 gems 0.15x 2026-11-11 18:43 UTC [Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.25 3.46 gems $0.34 0.52 gems 0.15x 2026-11-11 18:43 UTC [Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-battle-scarred) [Sleepy Python](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Sleepy%20Python) $2.25 3.46 gems $0.34 0.52 gems 0.15x 2026-11-11 18:43 UTC [Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.25 3.46 gems $0.34 0.52 gems 0.15x 2026-11-11 18:42 UTC [Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.25 3.46 gems $0.34 0.52 gems 0.15x 2026-11-11 18:42 UTC [Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.25 3.46 gems $0.34 0.52 gems 0.15x 2026-11-11 18:42 UTC [Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.25 3.46 gems $0.34 0.52 gems 0.15x 2026-11-11 18:42 UTC [Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.25 3.46 gems $0.34 0.52 gems 0.15x 2026-11-11 18:42 UTC [Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-battle-scarred) [strafe](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/strafe) $2.25 3.46 gems $0.34 0.52 gems 0.15x 2026-11-11 18:42 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $2.25 | 89.98% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed red 2.0% covert 4.0% classified 2.0% industrial 2.0% violet 90.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt