--- title: "Budget Blade case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Budget Blade ($11.39) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.96% from 12 items with odds, observed 85.85% over 1,518 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/budget-blade rendered: 2026-11-11T19:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Budget Blade](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/budget-blade) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Budget Blade A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/budget-blade?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/budget-blade?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/budget-blade) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/budget-blade?window=all) Price · $11.39 · 17.52 gems Advertised RTP · 89.96% · EV $10.24 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.85% · 1,518 openings, odds method Variance · 4.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 65.15% ±30.26 200 openings 7 days · 93.35% ±12.29 1,213 openings 30 days · 85.85% ±10.98 1,518 openings since tracking started · 85.85% ±10.98 1,518 openings 34.0% 70.3% 106.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/budget-blade?window=24h) | 200 | 65.15% ±30.3 | −1.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/budget-blade?window=7d) | 1,213 | 93.35% ±12.3 | +0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/budget-blade) | 1,518 | 85.85% ±11.0 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/budget-blade?window=all) | 1,518 | 85.85% ±11.0 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,542 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Classic Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $110 169 gems | 8.0% | 9 | 11.6 | 0.78× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-urban-masked-well-worn) | 1 in 133 | $108 166 gems | 7.9% | 11 | 11.6 | 0.95× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $102 157 gems | 7.5% | 12 | 11.6 | 1.04× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 133 | $100 154 gems | 7.3% | 9 | 11.6 | 0.78× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $87.69 135 gems | 8.6% | 13 | 15.4 | 0.84× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-night-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $86.36 133 gems | 8.4% | 17 | 15.4 | 1.10× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $80.61 124 gems | 15.7% | 33 | 30.8 | 1.07× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $59.44 91.44 gems | 17.4% | 45 | 46.3 | 0.97× | | [MP9 \| Arctic Tri-Tone (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-arctic-tri-tone-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $4.61 7.09 gems | 9.0% | 279 | 308.4 | 0.90× | | [AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $2.13 3.28 gems | 4.2% | 314 | 308.4 | 1.02× | | [R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-factory-new) | 25.0% | $1.28 1.97 gems | 3.1% | 424 | 385.5 | 1.10× | | [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) | 25.0% | $1.19 1.83 gems | 2.9% | 376 | 385.5 | 0.98× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=budget-blade) [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $11.39 17.52 gems $1.19 1.83 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 18:47 UTC [AWP | Mortis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.39 17.52 gems $2.13 3.28 gems 0.19x 2026-11-11 18:47 UTC [R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-factory-new) Hidden $11.39 17.52 gems $1.28 1.97 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 18:47 UTC [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $11.39 17.52 gems $1.19 1.83 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 18:47 UTC [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $11.39 17.52 gems $1.19 1.83 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 18:47 UTC [MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-arctic-tri-tone-minimal-wear) [Boomer IV](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Boomer%20IV) $11.39 17.52 gems $4.61 7.09 gems 0.40x 2026-11-11 18:47 UTC [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $11.39 17.52 gems $1.19 1.83 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 18:00 UTC [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $11.39 17.52 gems $1.19 1.83 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 18:00 UTC [R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-factory-new) Hidden $11.39 17.52 gems $1.28 1.97 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 18:00 UTC [R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-factory-new) Hidden $11.39 17.52 gems $1.28 1.97 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 18:00 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $11.39 | 89.96% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.5% covert knife 1.5% gold 3.0% #ffd700 3.0% Mythical 20.0% Legendary 20.0% #8847ff 25.0% restricted 25.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.96 on average: an expected loss of $10.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt