--- title: "Budget Pistol case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Budget Pistol ($2.02) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.73% from 7 items with odds, observed 90.52% over 3,406 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/budget-pistol rendered: 2026-11-11T21:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Budget Pistol](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/budget-pistol) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Budget Pistol A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/budget-pistol?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/budget-pistol?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/budget-pistol) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/budget-pistol?window=all) Price · $2.02 · 3.1 gems Advertised RTP · 89.73% · EV $1.81 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.52% · 3,406 openings, odds method Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 94.54% ±10.23 251 openings 7 days · 90.77% ±2.98 2,951 openings 30 days · 90.52% ±2.78 3,406 openings since tracking started · 90.52% ±2.78 3,406 openings 83.5% 94.5% 105.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/budget-pistol?window=24h) | 251 | 94.54% ±10.2 | +0.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/budget-pistol?window=7d) | 2,951 | 90.77% ±2.98 | +0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/budget-pistol) | 3,406 | 90.52% ±2.78 | +0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/budget-pistol?window=all) | 3,406 | 90.52% ±2.78 | +0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,455 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Toxic (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-toxic-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $5.06 7.79 gems | 28.0% | 373 | 345.5 | 1.08× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Naga (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-naga-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $4.61 7.09 gems | 25.5% | 331 | 345.5 | 0.96× | | [R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-reboot-factory-new) | 20.0% | $2.35 3.62 gems | 26.0% | 683 | 691.0 | 0.99× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Night (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-night-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $1.16 1.79 gems | 3.2% | 173 | 172.7 | 1.00× | | [P2000 \| Obsidian (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $0.72 1.1 gems | 2.0% | 166 | 172.7 | 0.96× | | [Five-SeveN \| Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.62 0.95 gems | 8.5% | 861 | 863.7 | 1.00× | | [Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-buddy-well-worn) | 25.0% | $0.49 0.75 gems | 6.7% | 868 | 863.8 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=budget-pistol) [Five-SeveN | Buddy (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-buddy-well-worn) Hidden $2.02 3.1 gems $0.49 0.75 gems 0.24x 2026-11-11 21:27 UTC [Five-SeveN | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $2.02 3.1 gems $0.62 0.95 gems 0.31x 2026-11-11 21:27 UTC [Five-SeveN | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $2.02 3.1 gems $0.62 0.95 gems 0.31x 2026-11-11 21:27 UTC [Five-SeveN | Buddy (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-buddy-well-worn) Hidden $2.02 3.1 gems $0.49 0.75 gems 0.24x 2026-11-11 21:27 UTC [Five-SeveN | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $2.02 3.1 gems $0.62 0.95 gems 0.31x 2026-11-11 21:27 UTC [Souvenir Tec-9 | Toxic (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-toxic-battle-scarred) [Gr3zzz](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Gr3zzz) $2.02 3.1 gems $5.06 7.79 gems 2.51x 2026-11-11 21:27 UTC [Five-SeveN | Buddy (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-buddy-well-worn) Hidden $2.02 3.1 gems $0.49 0.75 gems 0.24x 2026-11-11 21:10 UTC [R8 Revolver | Reboot (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-reboot-factory-new) Hidden $2.02 3.1 gems $2.35 3.62 gems 1.17x 2026-11-11 21:10 UTC [Five-SeveN | Buddy (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-buddy-well-worn) Hidden $2.02 3.1 gems $0.49 0.75 gems 0.24x 2026-11-11 21:10 UTC [Souvenir Tec-9 | Toxic (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-toxic-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.02 3.1 gems $5.06 7.79 gems 2.51x 2026-11-11 21:10 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $2.02 | 89.73% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Mil Spec Grade 10.0% Mythical 10.0% restricted 50.0% Industrial Grade 5.0% consumer 25.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.73 on average: an expected loss of $10.27 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt