--- title: "Butterfly Luck Case case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Butterfly Luck Case ($47.58) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 56.16% over 166 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/butterfly-luck-case rendered: 2026-11-12T04:21Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Butterfly Luck Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/butterfly-luck-case) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Butterfly Luck Case A case on Clash.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/butterfly-luck-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/butterfly-luck-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/butterfly-luck-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/butterfly-luck-case?window=all) Price · $47.58 · 73.2 gems Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 56.16% · 166 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 12 openings · below min 7 days · 139 openings · below min 30 days · 166 openings · below min since tracking started · 166 openings · below min 22.0% 62.0% 102.0% **Small sample.** 166 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/butterfly-luck-case?window=24h) | 12 | 45.24% ±22.8 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/butterfly-luck-case?window=7d) | 139 | 62.49% ±38.7 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/butterfly-luck-case) | 166 | 56.16% ±32.5 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/butterfly-luck-case?window=all) | 166 | 56.16% ±32.5 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Clash.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $47.58 73.2 gems $1,105 1,700 gems 23.22x 2026-11-09 22:27 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-scorched-factory-new) Hidden $47.58 73.2 gems $647 995 gems 13.60x 2026-11-09 16:14 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=butterfly-luck-case) [★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $47.58 73.2 gems $48.24 74.22 gems 1.01x 2026-11-11 08:19 UTC [Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-factory-new) Hidden $47.58 73.2 gems $6.84 10.53 gems 0.14x 2026-11-11 08:19 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) Hidden $47.58 73.2 gems $6.58 10.12 gems 0.14x 2026-11-11 08:19 UTC [AWP | Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-factory-new) Hidden $47.58 73.2 gems $14.19 21.83 gems 0.30x 2026-11-11 08:19 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-minimal-wear) Hidden $47.58 73.2 gems $44.07 67.8 gems 0.93x 2026-11-11 08:19 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $47.58 73.2 gems $48.24 74.22 gems 1.01x 2026-11-11 08:19 UTC [AWP | Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-factory-new) Hidden $47.58 73.2 gems $14.19 21.83 gems 0.30x 2026-11-11 08:14 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $47.58 73.2 gems $48.24 74.22 gems 1.01x 2026-11-11 08:14 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) Hidden $47.58 73.2 gems $6.58 10.12 gems 0.14x 2026-11-11 08:14 UTC [Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-factory-new) Hidden $47.58 73.2 gems $7.15 11 gems 0.15x 2026-11-11 08:14 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $1,105 (23.22x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 56.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $56.16 on average: an expected loss of $43.84 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt