--- title: "Candy Carnage case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Candy Carnage ($39.08) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 10 items with odds, observed 91.76% over 575 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/candy-carnage rendered: 2026-11-11T16:49Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Candy Carnage](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/candy-carnage) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Candy Carnage A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/candy-carnage?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/candy-carnage?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/candy-carnage) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/candy-carnage?window=all) Price · $39.08 · 60.12 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $35.17 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.76% · 575 openings, odds method Variance · 6.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 64.05% ±40.58 156 openings 7 days · 96.80% ±23.40 469 openings 30 days · 91.76% ±21.14 575 openings since tracking started · 91.76% ±21.14 575 openings 23.0% 72.0% 121.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/candy-carnage?window=24h) | 156 | 64.05% ±40.6 | −1.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/candy-carnage?window=7d) | 469 | 96.80% ±23.4 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/candy-carnage) | 575 | 91.76% ±21.1 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/candy-carnage?window=all) | 575 | 91.76% ±21.1 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 579 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $1,536 2,363 gems | 10.9% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.69× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $809 1,245 gems | 5.8% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.38× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-candy-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $337 518 gems | 4.8% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.69× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $216 332 gems | 12.3% | 13 | 11.6 | 1.12× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $176 271 gems | 20.0% | 23 | 23.2 | 0.99× | | [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $119 184 gems | 23.8% | 49 | 40.5 | 1.21× | | [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) | 10.0% | $30.82 47.42 gems | 8.8% | 50 | 57.9 | 0.86× | | [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 16.0% | $22.66 34.86 gems | 10.3% | 83 | 92.6 | 0.90× | | [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $3.22 4.95 gems | 1.8% | 114 | 115.8 | 0.98× | | [MP9 \| Goo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-minimal-wear) | 40.0% | $1.38 2.12 gems | 1.6% | 242 | 231.6 | 1.04× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $39.08 60.12 gems $1,536 2,363 gems 39.30x 2026-11-07 13:17 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-factory-new) [Briggsy](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Briggsy) $39.08 60.12 gems $809 1,245 gems 20.71x 2026-11-10 02:42 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-factory-new) Hidden $39.08 60.12 gems $809 1,245 gems 20.71x 2026-11-05 22:53 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=candy-carnage) [MP9 | Goo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.08 60.12 gems $1.38 2.12 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.08 60.12 gems $3.22 4.95 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [MP9 | Goo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.08 60.12 gems $1.38 2.12 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [MP9 | Goo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.08 60.12 gems $1.38 2.12 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [MP9 | Goo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.08 60.12 gems $1.38 2.12 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) [helix](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/helix) $39.08 60.12 gems $22.66 34.86 gems 0.58x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.08 60.12 gems $3.22 4.95 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) Hidden $39.08 60.12 gems $22.66 34.86 gems 0.58x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [MP9 | Goo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.08 60.12 gems $1.38 2.12 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [MP9 | Goo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.08 60.12 gems $1.38 2.12 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $39.08 | 89.99% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 20.3% legendary 0.3% mil spec 0.5% sunny 2.0% classified 17.0% #d32ee6 20.0% Mythical 40.0% best hit $1,536 (39.30x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt