--- title: "Candy Dreams case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Candy Dreams ($7.44) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.94% from 9 items with odds, observed 86.67% over 3,285 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/candy-dreams rendered: 2026-11-11T13:57Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Candy Dreams](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/candy-dreams) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Candy Dreams A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/candy-dreams?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/candy-dreams?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/candy-dreams) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/candy-dreams?window=all) Price · $7.44 · 11.45 gems Advertised RTP · 89.94% · EV $6.69 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.67% · 3,285 openings, odds method Variance · 3.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 67.12% ±19.56 357 openings 7 days · 86.64% ±7.18 2,650 openings 30 days · 86.67% ±6.45 3,285 openings since tracking started · 86.67% ±6.45 3,285 openings 47.0% 70.8% 94.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/candy-dreams?window=24h) | 357 | 67.12% ±19.6 | −2.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/candy-dreams?window=7d) | 2,650 | 86.64% ±7.18 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/candy-dreams) | 3,285 | 86.67% ±6.45 | −1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/candy-dreams?window=all) | 3,285 | 86.67% ±6.45 | −1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,323 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Battle-Scarred) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $90.68 140 gems | 27.1% | 56 | 66.5 | 0.84× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-jawbreaker-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $41.44 63.75 gems | 12.4% | 71 | 66.5 | 1.07× | | [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $27.28 41.97 gems | 8.2% | 63 | 66.5 | 0.95× | | [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $12.12 18.64 gems | 25.3% | 459 | 465.2 | 0.99× | | [UMP-45 \| Caramel (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-caramel-field-tested) | 15.0% | $5.47 8.41 gems | 12.2% | 511 | 498.4 | 1.03× | | [SG 553 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-candy-apple-factory-new) | 15.0% | $4.12 6.34 gems | 9.2% | 494 | 498.4 | 0.99× | | [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $1.81 2.78 gems | 4.0% | 502 | 498.4 | 1.01× | | [MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $0.62 0.95 gems | 1.4% | 518 | 498.4 | 1.04× | | [Nova \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.04 0.06 gems | 0.1% | 649 | 664.6 | 0.98× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=candy-dreams) [M4A4 | In Living Color (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.44 11.45 gems $1.81 2.78 gems 0.24x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC [UMP-45 | Caramel (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-caramel-field-tested) Hidden $7.44 11.45 gems $5.47 8.41 gems 0.73x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC [UMP-45 | Caramel (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-caramel-field-tested) [Winksy89](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Winksy89) $7.44 11.45 gems $5.47 8.41 gems 0.73x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC [SG 553 | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $7.44 11.45 gems $4.12 6.34 gems 0.55x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC [MP9 | Food Chain (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.44 11.45 gems $0.62 0.95 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC [M4A1-S | Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) [Winksy89](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Winksy89) $7.44 11.45 gems $12.12 18.64 gems 1.63x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC [Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $7.44 11.45 gems $0.04 0.06 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC [UMP-45 | Caramel (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-caramel-field-tested) Hidden $7.44 11.45 gems $5.47 8.41 gems 0.73x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC [SG 553 | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $7.44 11.45 gems $4.12 6.34 gems 0.55x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC [MP9 | Food Chain (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-battle-scarred) [ExeKeyboard](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/ExeKeyboard) $7.44 11.45 gems $0.62 0.95 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $7.44 | 89.94% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed gold 2.0% classified 18.0% consumer 15.0% industrial 35.0% red 15.0% pink 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.94 on average: an expected loss of $10.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt