--- title: "Carbine Case case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Carbine Case ($53.63) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 11 items with odds, observed 104.00% over 354 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/carbine-case rendered: 2026-11-11T19:23Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Carbine Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/carbine-case) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Carbine Case A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/carbine-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/carbine-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/carbine-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/carbine-case?window=all) Price · $53.63 · 82.51 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $48.26 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 104.00% · 354 openings, odds method Variance · 5.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 10 openings · below min 7 days · 110.09% ±27.06 273 openings 30 days · 104.00% ±23.77 354 openings since tracking started · 104.00% ±23.77 354 openings 26.5% 168.5% 310.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/carbine-case?window=24h) | 10 | 168.50% ±141.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/carbine-case?window=7d) | 273 | 110.09% ±27.1 | +1.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/carbine-case) | 354 | 104.00% ±23.8 | +1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/carbine-case?window=all) | 354 | 104.00% ±23.8 | +1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 354 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Daybreak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $746 1,147 gems | 30.9% | 11 | 7.1 | 1.55× | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-stratosphere-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $398 612 gems | 16.5% | 8 | 7.1 | 1.13× | | [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $306 471 gems | 12.7% | 7 | 7.1 | 0.99× | | [M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $183 282 gems | 7.6% | 6 | 7.1 | 0.85× | | [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $81.25 125 gems | 3.4% | 8 | 7.1 | 1.13× | | [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $37.80 58.15 gems | 7.8% | 25 | 35.4 | 0.71× | | [M4A4 \| Modern Hunter (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $29.95 46.08 gems | 6.2% | 32 | 35.4 | 0.90× | | [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) | 10.0% | $22.70 34.93 gems | 4.7% | 29 | 35.4 | 0.82× | | [M4A4 \| Zirka (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-field-tested) | 20.0% | $14.72 22.64 gems | 6.1% | 84 | 70.8 | 1.19× | | [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 20.0% | $7.42 11.42 gems | 3.1% | 65 | 70.8 | 0.92× | | [M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 20.0% | $2.55 3.92 gems | 1.1% | 79 | 70.8 | 1.12× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A4 | Daybreak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-factory-new) Hidden $53.63 82.51 gems $746 1,147 gems 13.90x 2026-11-10 06:11 UTC [M4A4 | Daybreak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-factory-new) Hidden $53.63 82.51 gems $746 1,147 gems 13.90x 2026-11-09 03:44 UTC [M4A4 | Daybreak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-factory-new) Hidden $53.63 82.51 gems $746 1,147 gems 13.90x 2026-11-08 20:27 UTC [M4A4 | Daybreak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-factory-new) Hidden $53.63 82.51 gems $746 1,147 gems 13.90x 2026-11-08 20:22 UTC [M4A4 | Daybreak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-factory-new) Hidden $53.63 82.51 gems $746 1,147 gems 13.90x 2026-11-06 23:03 UTC [M4A4 | Daybreak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-factory-new) Hidden $53.63 82.51 gems $746 1,147 gems 13.90x 2026-11-06 23:02 UTC [M4A4 | Daybreak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-factory-new) Hidden $53.63 82.51 gems $746 1,147 gems 13.90x 2026-11-06 23:02 UTC [M4A4 | Daybreak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-factory-new) Hidden $53.63 82.51 gems $746 1,147 gems 13.90x 2026-11-06 10:47 UTC [M4A4 | Daybreak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-factory-new) Hidden $53.63 82.51 gems $746 1,147 gems 13.90x 2026-11-04 20:30 UTC [M4A4 | Daybreak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-factory-new) Hidden $53.63 82.51 gems $746 1,147 gems 13.90x 2026-11-03 19:47 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=carbine-case) [M4A4 | Modern Hunter (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-battle-scarred) Hidden $53.63 82.51 gems $29.95 46.08 gems 0.56x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-stratosphere-minimal-wear) Hidden $53.63 82.51 gems $398 612 gems 7.42x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC [M4A4 | Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) Hidden $53.63 82.51 gems $2.55 3.92 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC [M4A4 | Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) Hidden $53.63 82.51 gems $2.55 3.92 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC [M4A1-S | Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) Hidden $53.63 82.51 gems $7.42 11.42 gems 0.14x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC [M4A4 | Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) Hidden $53.63 82.51 gems $2.55 3.92 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-stratosphere-minimal-wear) Hidden $53.63 82.51 gems $398 612 gems 7.42x 2026-11-11 08:28 UTC [M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $53.63 82.51 gems $22.70 34.93 gems 0.42x 2026-11-11 08:28 UTC [M4A4 | Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) Hidden $53.63 82.51 gems $2.55 3.92 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 08:28 UTC [M4A1-S | Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) [s1gma](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/s1gma) $53.63 82.51 gems $37.80 58.15 gems 0.70x 2026-11-11 08:28 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $53.63 | 89.99% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 42.0% other 2.0% Ancient 2.0% epic 2.0% covert 12.0% violet 20.0% classified 20.0% best hit $746 (13.90x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt