--- title: "Carrot Cashout case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Carrot Cashout ($28.31) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 93.81% over 390 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/carrot-cashout rendered: 2026-11-12T01:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Carrot Cashout](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/carrot-cashout) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Carrot Cashout A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/carrot-cashout?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/carrot-cashout?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/carrot-cashout) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/carrot-cashout?window=all) Price · $28.31 · 43.55 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $25.48 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.81% · 390 openings, odds method Variance · 2.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 36 openings · below min 7 days · 88.52% ±18.22 300 openings 30 days · 93.81% ±15.98 390 openings since tracking started · 93.81% ±15.98 390 openings 13.0% 66.3% 119.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/carrot-cashout?window=24h) | 36 | 66.24% ±52.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/carrot-cashout?window=7d) | 300 | 88.52% ±18.2 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/carrot-cashout) | 390 | 93.81% ±16.0 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/carrot-cashout?window=all) | 390 | 93.81% ±16.0 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 404 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $273 419 gems | 21.4% | 8 | 8.1 | 0.99× | | [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $122 188 gems | 14.4% | 14 | 12.1 | 1.16× | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $83.18 128 gems | 16.3% | 25 | 20.2 | 1.24× | | [AWP \| Crakow! (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $62.31 95.86 gems | 12.2% | 19 | 20.2 | 0.94× | | [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $56.23 86.51 gems | 11.0% | 17 | 20.2 | 0.84× | | [AUG \| Lil' Pig (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $35.34 54.37 gems | 6.9% | 17 | 20.2 | 0.84× | | [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $14.24 21.9 gems | 2.8% | 22 | 20.2 | 1.09× | | [FAMAS \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-minimal-wear) | 30.0% | $7.79 11.98 gems | 9.2% | 119 | 121.2 | 0.98× | | [Five-SeveN \| Fraise Crane (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fraise-crane-factory-new) | 40.0% | $3.65 5.61 gems | 5.7% | 163 | 161.6 | 1.01× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 12 Nov, 00:07 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=carrot-cashout) [FAMAS | Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.31 43.55 gems $7.79 11.98 gems 0.28x 2026-11-11 19:15 UTC [Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fraise-crane-factory-new) Hidden $28.31 43.55 gems $3.65 5.61 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 19:15 UTC [FAMAS | Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.31 43.55 gems $7.79 11.98 gems 0.28x 2026-11-11 19:15 UTC [M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.31 43.55 gems $83.18 128 gems 2.94x 2026-11-11 19:15 UTC [M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) Hidden $28.31 43.55 gems $122 188 gems 4.32x 2026-11-11 19:15 UTC [FAMAS | Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-minimal-wear) [thegamblingbandits.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/thegamblingbandits.com) $28.31 43.55 gems $7.79 11.98 gems 0.28x 2026-11-11 19:15 UTC [FAMAS | Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.31 43.55 gems $7.79 11.98 gems 0.28x 2026-11-11 19:13 UTC [FAMAS | Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.31 43.55 gems $7.79 11.98 gems 0.28x 2026-11-11 19:13 UTC [Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fraise-crane-factory-new) Hidden $28.31 43.55 gems $3.65 5.61 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 19:13 UTC [M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.31 43.55 gems $83.18 128 gems 2.94x 2026-11-11 19:13 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $28.31 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed red 2.0% covert 8.0% rare 5.0% classified 10.0% pink 5.0% Mythical 30.0% #4b69ff 40.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt