--- title: "Castle case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Castle ($187.32) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds, observed 90.91% over 426 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/castle rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Castle](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/castle) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Castle A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/castle?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/castle?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/castle) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/castle?window=all) Price · $187.32 · 288 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $168.59 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.91% · 426 openings, odds method Variance · 6.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 60 openings · below min 7 days · 97.23% ±26.58 360 openings 30 days · 90.91% ±24.43 426 openings since tracking started · 90.91% ±24.43 426 openings 10.0% 75.8% 141.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/castle?window=24h) | 60 | 75.63% ±65.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/castle?window=7d) | 360 | 97.23% ±26.6 | +0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/castle) | 426 | 90.91% ±24.4 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/castle?window=all) | 426 | 90.91% ±24.4 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 452 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1,614 2,483 gems | 95.7% | 45 | 45.2 | 1.00× | | [Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $40.89 62.9 gems | 3.6% | 66 | 67.8 | 0.97× | | [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) | 15.0% | $3.71 5.71 gems | 0.3% | 77 | 67.8 | 1.14× | | [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $3.06 4.71 gems | 0.3% | 54 | 67.8 | 0.80× | | [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.16 0.24 gems | 0.0% | 60 | 67.8 | 0.88× | | [Sticker \| Dragon's Keep sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragons-keep) | 30.0% | $0.10 0.16 gems | 0.0% | 150 | 135.6 | 1.11× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $187 288 gems $1,614 2,483 gems 8.62x 2026-11-11 11:53 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $187 288 gems $1,614 2,483 gems 8.62x 2026-11-11 02:07 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) [Code Brando](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Code%20Brando) $187 288 gems $1,614 2,483 gems 8.62x 2026-11-10 20:34 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $187 288 gems $1,614 2,483 gems 8.62x 2026-11-10 19:52 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) [King-Hassany](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/King-Hassany) $187 288 gems $1,614 2,483 gems 8.62x 2026-11-10 16:41 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $187 288 gems $1,614 2,483 gems 8.62x 2026-11-10 04:46 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $187 288 gems $1,614 2,483 gems 8.62x 2026-11-09 20:59 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $187 288 gems $1,614 2,483 gems 8.62x 2026-11-09 20:59 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) [Headed](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Headed) $187 288 gems $1,614 2,483 gems 8.62x 2026-11-09 17:22 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $187 288 gems $1,614 2,483 gems 8.62x 2026-11-09 09:49 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=castle) [Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-factory-new) Hidden $187 288 gems $0.16 0.24 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:53 UTC [Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) Hidden $187 288 gems $3.71 5.71 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:53 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $187 288 gems $1,614 2,483 gems 8.62x 2026-11-11 11:53 UTC [Dual Berettas | Duelist (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-minimal-wear) Hidden $187 288 gems $40.89 62.9 gems 0.22x 2026-11-11 11:53 UTC [Sticker | Dragon's Keep sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragons-keep) Hidden $187 288 gems $0.10 0.16 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:53 UTC [Sticker | Dragon's Keep sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragons-keep) [Kick/HarryJZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Kick%2FHarryJZ) $187 288 gems $0.10 0.16 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:53 UTC [Dual Berettas | Duelist (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-minimal-wear) Hidden $187 288 gems $40.89 62.9 gems 0.22x 2026-11-11 02:07 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $187 288 gems $1,614 2,483 gems 8.62x 2026-11-11 02:07 UTC [Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) Hidden $187 288 gems $3.71 5.71 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 02:07 UTC [Dual Berettas | Duelist (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-minimal-wear) [Beljit](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Beljit) $187 288 gems $40.89 62.9 gems 0.22x 2026-11-11 02:07 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $187 | 90.00% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 10.0% restricted 30.0% Covert 15.0% violet 15.0% Rare 30.0% best hit $1,614 (8.62x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt