--- title: "Celebration case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Celebration ($89.94) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 9 items with odds, observed 88.03% over 327 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/celebration rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Celebration](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/celebration) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Celebration A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/celebration?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/celebration?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/celebration) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/celebration?window=all) Price · $89.94 · 138 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $80.94 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.03% · 327 openings, odds method Variance · 8.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 72 openings · below min 7 days · 86.41% ±31.46 311 openings 30 days · 88.03% ±30.69 327 openings since tracking started · 88.03% ±30.69 327 openings 28.5% 94.5% 160.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/celebration?window=24h) | 72 | 94.42% ±65.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/celebration?window=7d) | 311 | 86.41% ±31.5 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/celebration) | 327 | 88.03% ±30.7 | −0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/celebration?window=all) | 327 | 88.03% ±30.7 | −0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 333 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1,170 1,800 gems | 72.3% | 17 | 16.7 | 1.02× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $205 316 gems | 12.7% | 12 | 16.7 | 0.72× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-the-traitor-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $113 173 gems | 7.0% | 22 | 16.7 | 1.32× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $57.86 89.01 gems | 3.6% | 19 | 16.7 | 1.14× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $19.61 30.17 gems | 1.2% | 22 | 16.7 | 1.32× | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-imperial-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $13.37 20.57 gems | 0.8% | 22 | 16.7 | 1.32× | | [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-factory-new) | 10.0% | $8.01 12.33 gems | 1.0% | 34 | 33.3 | 1.02× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-field-tested) | 20.0% | $4.22 6.49 gems | 1.0% | 56 | 66.6 | 0.84× | | [MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) | 40.0% | $0.92 1.41 gems | 0.5% | 129 | 133.2 | 0.97× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-field-tested) Hidden $89.94 138 gems $1,170 1,800 gems 13.01x 2026-11-11 13:51 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-field-tested) Hidden $89.94 138 gems $1,170 1,800 gems 13.01x 2026-11-11 07:53 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-field-tested) Hidden $89.94 138 gems $1,170 1,800 gems 13.01x 2026-11-10 23:27 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-field-tested) Hidden $89.94 138 gems $1,170 1,800 gems 13.01x 2026-11-10 19:59 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-field-tested) Hidden $89.94 138 gems $1,170 1,800 gems 13.01x 2026-11-09 23:37 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-field-tested) [middlemasluke99](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/middlemasluke99) $89.94 138 gems $1,170 1,800 gems 13.01x 2026-11-09 23:30 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-field-tested) Hidden $89.94 138 gems $1,170 1,800 gems 13.01x 2026-11-09 03:31 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-field-tested) Hidden $89.94 138 gems $1,170 1,800 gems 13.01x 2026-11-09 03:12 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-field-tested) [Unique Giraffe](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Unique%20Giraffe) $89.94 138 gems $1,170 1,800 gems 13.01x 2026-11-09 01:29 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-field-tested) Hidden $89.94 138 gems $1,170 1,800 gems 13.01x 2026-11-09 01:29 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=celebration) [MP9 | Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) Hidden $89.94 138 gems $0.92 1.41 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:51 UTC [M4A4 | Spider Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-factory-new) Hidden $89.94 138 gems $8.01 12.33 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:51 UTC [MP9 | Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) Hidden $89.94 138 gems $0.92 1.41 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:51 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-field-tested) Hidden $89.94 138 gems $1,170 1,800 gems 13.01x 2026-11-11 13:51 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) Hidden $89.94 138 gems $57.86 89.01 gems 0.64x 2026-11-11 13:51 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-the-traitor-factory-new) [Headed](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Headed) $89.94 138 gems $113 173 gems 1.25x 2026-11-11 13:51 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) Hidden $89.94 138 gems $205 316 gems 2.28x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC [M4A4 | Spider Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-factory-new) Hidden $89.94 138 gems $8.01 12.33 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) Hidden $89.94 138 gems $57.86 89.01 gems 0.64x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC [MP9 | Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) Hidden $89.94 138 gems $0.92 1.41 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $89.94 | 89.99% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 50.0% rare 5.0% covert 5.0% Covert 5.0% Classified 5.0% restricted 10.0% Legendary 20.0% best hit $1,170 (13.01x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt