--- title: "Celestial Vault case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Celestial Vault ($98.76) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 100.81% over 352 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/celestial-vault rendered: 2026-11-11T20:25Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Celestial Vault](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/celestial-vault) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Celestial Vault A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/celestial-vault?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/celestial-vault?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/celestial-vault) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/celestial-vault?window=all) Price · $98.76 · 152 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $88.88 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 100.81% · 352 openings, odds method Variance · 4.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 30 openings · below min 7 days · 103.82% ±25.87 282 openings 30 days · 100.81% ±23.16 352 openings since tracking started · 100.81% ±23.16 352 openings 15.0% 95.0% 175.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/celestial-vault?window=24h) | 30 | 95.15% ±79.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/celestial-vault?window=7d) | 282 | 103.82% ±25.9 | +1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/celestial-vault) | 352 | 100.81% ±23.2 | +0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/celestial-vault?window=all) | 352 | 100.81% ±23.2 | +0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 352 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 40 | $1,198 1,843 gems | 33.7% | 13 | 8.8 | 1.48× | | [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $658 1,012 gems | 18.5% | 8 | 8.8 | 0.91× | | [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $369 567 gems | 20.7% | 15 | 17.6 | 0.85× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $179 275 gems | 10.1% | 16 | 17.6 | 0.91× | | [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-field-tested) | 10.0% | $71.67 110 gems | 8.1% | 38 | 35.2 | 1.08× | | [USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $35.95 55.3 gems | 6.1% | 62 | 52.8 | 1.17× | | [Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-rameses-reach-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $13.99 21.53 gems | 2.4% | 51 | 52.8 | 0.97× | | [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $1.65 2.54 gems | 0.4% | 68 | 70.4 | 0.97× | | [P2000 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $0.51 0.79 gems | 0.1% | 81 | 88.0 | 0.92× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $98.76 152 gems $1,198 1,843 gems 12.13x 2026-11-10 21:35 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $98.76 152 gems $1,198 1,843 gems 12.13x 2026-11-09 02:38 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [PeepE](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/PeepE) $98.76 152 gems $1,198 1,843 gems 12.13x 2026-11-09 02:28 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $98.76 152 gems $1,198 1,843 gems 12.13x 2026-11-09 02:21 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $98.76 152 gems $1,198 1,843 gems 12.13x 2026-11-07 14:01 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $98.76 152 gems $1,198 1,843 gems 12.13x 2026-11-07 04:27 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $98.76 152 gems $1,198 1,843 gems 12.13x 2026-11-06 18:49 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $98.76 152 gems $1,198 1,843 gems 12.13x 2026-11-06 18:48 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $98.76 152 gems $1,198 1,843 gems 12.13x 2026-11-06 18:47 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $98.76 152 gems $1,198 1,843 gems 12.13x 2026-11-06 18:47 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=celestial-vault) [★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $98.76 152 gems $658 1,012 gems 6.66x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC [Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-minimal-wear) Hidden $98.76 152 gems $1.65 2.54 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC [AWP | Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-field-tested) Hidden $98.76 152 gems $71.67 110 gems 0.73x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC [Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-minimal-wear) Hidden $98.76 152 gems $1.65 2.54 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC [P2000 | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $98.76 152 gems $0.51 0.79 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC [Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-minimal-wear) [HayzeusC](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/HayzeusC) $98.76 152 gems $1.65 2.54 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC [USP-S | The Traitor (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-minimal-wear) Hidden $98.76 152 gems $35.95 55.3 gems 0.36x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC [Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-minimal-wear) Hidden $98.76 152 gems $1.65 2.54 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC [Glock-18 | Ramese's Reach (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-rameses-reach-minimal-wear) Hidden $98.76 152 gems $13.99 21.53 gems 0.14x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC [AK-47 | Aphrodite (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-factory-new) Hidden $98.76 152 gems $369 567 gems 3.73x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $98.76 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 35.0% #eb4b4b 5.0% violet 15.0% pink 20.0% #8847ff 25.0% best hit $1,198 (12.13x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt