--- title: "Certified Banger case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Certified Banger ($10.41) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds, observed 86.64% over 857 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/certified-banger rendered: 2026-11-11T16:57Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Certified Banger](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/certified-banger) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Certified Banger A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/certified-banger?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/certified-banger?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/certified-banger) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/certified-banger?window=all) Price · $10.41 · 16.01 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $9.37 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.64% · 857 openings, odds method Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 78.52% ±18.14 160 openings 7 days · 83.85% ±8.27 770 openings 30 days · 86.64% ±7.84 857 openings since tracking started · 86.64% ±7.84 857 openings 59.5% 78.5% 97.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/certified-banger?window=24h) | 160 | 78.52% ±18.1 | −1.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/certified-banger?window=7d) | 770 | 83.85% ±8.27 | −1.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/certified-banger) | 857 | 86.64% ±7.84 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/certified-banger?window=all) | 857 | 86.64% ±7.84 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 867 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 15.0% | $34.12 52.49 gems | 54.6% | 125 | 130.0 | 0.96× | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-fire-elemental-well-worn) | 15.0% | $19.19 29.52 gems | 30.7% | 122 | 130.0 | 0.94× | | [MAG-7 \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-silver-factory-new) | 15.0% | $6.19 9.52 gems | 9.9% | 139 | 130.0 | 1.07× | | [Nova \| Clear Polymer (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-clear-polymer-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $1.90 2.92 gems | 3.0% | 121 | 130.0 | 0.93× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-silver-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.71 1.09 gems | 1.1% | 119 | 130.0 | 0.92× | | [Five-SeveN \| Silver Quartz (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-silver-quartz-well-worn) | 25.0% | $0.20 0.31 gems | 0.5% | 241 | 216.8 | 1.11× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=certified-banger) [AWP | Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) Hidden $10.41 16.01 gems $34.12 52.49 gems 3.28x 2026-11-11 16:03 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-silver-factory-new) Hidden $10.41 16.01 gems $0.71 1.09 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 16:03 UTC [AWP | Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) Hidden $10.41 16.01 gems $34.12 52.49 gems 3.28x 2026-11-11 16:03 UTC [Nova | Clear Polymer (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-clear-polymer-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.41 16.01 gems $1.90 2.92 gems 0.18x 2026-11-11 16:03 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-silver-factory-new) Hidden $10.41 16.01 gems $0.71 1.09 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 16:03 UTC [Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-silver-quartz-well-worn) [squjsh](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/squjsh) $10.41 16.01 gems $0.20 0.31 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:03 UTC [AWP | Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) Hidden $10.41 16.01 gems $34.12 52.49 gems 3.28x 2026-11-11 15:56 UTC [MAG-7 | Silver (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-silver-factory-new) Hidden $10.41 16.01 gems $6.19 9.52 gems 0.59x 2026-11-11 15:56 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Silver (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-silver-factory-new) Hidden $10.41 16.01 gems $0.71 1.09 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 15:56 UTC [Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-silver-quartz-well-worn) Hidden $10.41 16.01 gems $0.20 0.31 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:56 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $10.41 | 90.00% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 15.0% #eb4b4b 15.0% #87c7ff 15.0% violet 15.0% light blue 15.0% mil spec 25.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt