--- title: "Cheese Machine case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Cheese Machine ($14.87) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.97% from 12 items with odds, observed 87.28% over 8,795 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cheese-machine rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Cheese Machine](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cheese-machine) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Cheese Machine A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cheese-machine?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cheese-machine?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cheese-machine) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cheese-machine?window=all) Price · $14.87 · 22.87 gems Advertised RTP · 89.97% · EV $13.37 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.28% · 8,795 openings, odds method Variance · 42.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 87.39% ±46.03 771 openings 7 days · 88.23% ±14.77 7,491 openings 30 days · 87.28% ±13.63 8,795 openings since tracking started · 87.28% ±13.63 8,795 openings 40.5% 87.3% 134.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cheese-machine?window=24h) | 771 | 87.39% ±46.0 | −0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cheese-machine?window=7d) | 7,491 | 88.23% ±14.8 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cheese-machine) | 8,795 | 87.28% ±13.6 | −0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cheese-machine?window=all) | 8,795 | 87.28% ±13.6 | −0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,959 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,875 2,885 gems | 28.0% | 17 | 17.9 | 0.95× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $648 998 gems | 14.5% | 27 | 26.9 | 1.00× | | [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $388 597 gems | 14.5% | 40 | 44.8 | 0.89× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $230 354 gems | 8.6% | 41 | 44.8 | 0.92× | | [SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Factory New) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $119 183 gems | 8.9% | 92 | 89.6 | 1.03× | | [Tec-9 \| Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-terrace-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $74.10 114 gems | 8.3% | 136 | 134.4 | 1.01× | | [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $34.61 53.25 gems | 5.2% | 189 | 179.2 | 1.05× | | [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $18.28 28.13 gems | 5.5% | 399 | 358.4 | 1.11× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-factory-new) | 10.0% | $4.23 6.51 gems | 3.2% | 915 | 895.9 | 1.02× | | [Negev \| Power Loader (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $1.68 2.58 gems | 1.3% | 880 | 895.9 | 0.98× | | [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.87 1.34 gems | 0.7% | 845 | 895.9 | 0.94× | | [Sticker \| EZ sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ez) | 60.0% | $0.31 0.47 gems | 1.4% | 5,378 | 5375.4 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $14.87 22.87 gems $1,875 2,885 gems 126.2x 2026-11-11 00:12 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) [metrostabins](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/metrostabins) $14.87 22.87 gems $1,875 2,885 gems 126.2x 2026-11-10 13:12 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $14.87 22.87 gems $1,875 2,885 gems 126.2x 2026-11-10 08:16 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $14.87 22.87 gems $1,875 2,885 gems 126.2x 2026-11-08 18:55 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $14.87 22.87 gems $1,875 2,885 gems 126.2x 2026-11-08 15:40 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $14.87 22.87 gems $1,875 2,885 gems 126.2x 2026-11-08 07:36 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $14.87 22.87 gems $1,875 2,885 gems 126.2x 2026-11-07 15:14 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $14.87 22.87 gems $1,875 2,885 gems 126.2x 2026-11-07 13:19 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $14.87 22.87 gems $1,875 2,885 gems 126.2x 2026-11-07 06:54 UTC [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) [certified boogeyman](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/certified%20boogeyman) $14.87 22.87 gems $1,875 2,885 gems 126.2x 2026-11-07 05:43 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=cheese-machine) [Sticker | EZ sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ez) Hidden $14.87 22.87 gems $0.31 0.47 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [Sticker | EZ sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ez) Hidden $14.87 22.87 gems $0.31 0.47 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [Sticker | EZ sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ez) Hidden $14.87 22.87 gems $0.31 0.47 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [Sticker | EZ sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ez) Hidden $14.87 22.87 gems $0.31 0.47 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [Sticker | EZ sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ez) Hidden $14.87 22.87 gems $0.31 0.47 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [Negev | Power Loader (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-minimal-wear) [☦︎Theta](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%E2%98%A6%EF%B8%8ETheta) $14.87 22.87 gems $1.68 2.58 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [Sticker | EZ sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ez) Hidden $14.87 22.87 gems $0.31 0.47 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC [Sticker | EZ sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ez) Hidden $14.87 22.87 gems $0.31 0.47 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC [FAMAS | Neural Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-factory-new) Hidden $14.87 22.87 gems $0.87 1.34 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC [SG 553 | Colony IV (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-factory-new) Hidden $14.87 22.87 gems $18.28 28.13 gems 1.23x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $14.87 | 89.97% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.2% extraordinary 0.3% restricted 12.5% Covert 0.5% Classified 1.0% mil spec 1.5% #d32ee6 4.0% #8847ff 10.0% violet 10.0% high 60.0% best hit $1,875 (126.2x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.97 on average: an expected loss of $10.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt