--- title: "Christmas Lights case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Christmas Lights ($27.81) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 10 items with odds, observed 100.51% over 742 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/christmas-lights rendered: 2026-11-11T18:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Christmas Lights](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/christmas-lights) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Christmas Lights A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/christmas-lights?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/christmas-lights?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/christmas-lights) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/christmas-lights?window=all) Price · $27.81 · 42.79 gems Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $25.03 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 100.51% · 742 openings, odds method Variance · 7.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 122 openings · below min 7 days · 97.20% ±21.48 635 openings 30 days · 100.51% ±19.87 742 openings since tracking started · 100.51% ±19.87 742 openings 75.0% 124.8% 174.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/christmas-lights?window=24h) | 122 | 124.96% ±49.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/christmas-lights?window=7d) | 635 | 97.20% ±21.5 | +0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/christmas-lights) | 742 | 100.51% ±19.9 | +1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/christmas-lights?window=all) | 742 | 100.51% ±19.9 | +1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 750 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $556 855 gems | 22.2% | 12 | 7.5 | 1.60× | | [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $364 560 gems | 14.5% | 10 | 7.5 | 1.33× | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $257 395 gems | 20.5% | 13 | 15.0 | 0.87× | | [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $140 216 gems | 11.2% | 11 | 15.0 | 0.73× | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $87.52 135 gems | 14.0% | 32 | 30.0 | 1.07× | | [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $35.56 54.7 gems | 7.1% | 41 | 37.5 | 1.09× | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 10.0% | $15.29 23.52 gems | 6.1% | 60 | 75.0 | 0.80× | | [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 10.0% | $5.92 9.1 gems | 2.4% | 71 | 75.0 | 0.95× | | [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1.37 2.11 gems | 0.5% | 91 | 75.0 | 1.21× | | [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-minimal-wear) | 55.0% | $0.63 0.97 gems | 1.4% | 409 | 412.5 | 0.99× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $27.81 42.79 gems $556 855 gems 19.98x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $27.81 42.79 gems $556 855 gems 19.98x 2026-11-11 10:47 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $27.81 42.79 gems $556 855 gems 19.98x 2026-11-11 05:03 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $27.81 42.79 gems $556 855 gems 19.98x 2026-11-10 23:05 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [Ryfo](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Ryfo) $27.81 42.79 gems $556 855 gems 19.98x 2026-11-08 05:26 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $27.81 42.79 gems $556 855 gems 19.98x 2026-11-07 21:14 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [Nate Higgerson](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Nate%20Higgerson) $27.81 42.79 gems $556 855 gems 19.98x 2026-11-06 18:01 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [Ɑ͞ ̶͞ ̶͞ ﻝﮞ ⛟⓺⓽](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%E2%B1%AD%CD%9E%20%CC%B6%CD%9E%20%CC%B6%CD%9E%20%EF%BB%9D%EF%AE%9E%20%E2%9B%9F%E2%93%BA%E2%93%BD) $27.81 42.79 gems $556 855 gems 19.98x 2026-11-06 13:13 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $27.81 42.79 gems $556 855 gems 19.98x 2026-11-05 18:23 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $27.81 42.79 gems $556 855 gems 19.98x 2026-11-05 14:18 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=christmas-lights) [M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) Hidden $27.81 42.79 gems $87.52 135 gems 3.15x 2026-11-11 17:39 UTC [M4A1-S | Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-minimal-wear) Hidden $27.81 42.79 gems $0.63 0.97 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:39 UTC [M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) Hidden $27.81 42.79 gems $87.52 135 gems 3.15x 2026-11-11 17:39 UTC [M4A1-S | Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-minimal-wear) [Pejchyn](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Pejchyn) $27.81 42.79 gems $0.63 0.97 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:39 UTC [M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) Hidden $27.81 42.79 gems $15.29 23.52 gems 0.55x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC [M4A1-S | Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-minimal-wear) Hidden $27.81 42.79 gems $0.63 0.97 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC [M4A1-S | Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-minimal-wear) Hidden $27.81 42.79 gems $0.63 0.97 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC [M4A1-S | Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-minimal-wear) Hidden $27.81 42.79 gems $0.63 0.97 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC [M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-factory-new) Hidden $27.81 42.79 gems $140 216 gems 5.05x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC [M4A1-S | Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-minimal-wear) [helix](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/helix) $27.81 42.79 gems $0.63 0.97 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $27.81 | 89.98% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 12.0% covert 16.0% epic 2.0% industrial 5.0% restricted 65.0% best hit $556 (19.98x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt