--- title: "Christmas Loadout case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Christmas Loadout ($165.25) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 48.94% over 477 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/christmas-loadout rendered: 2026-11-11T13:57Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Christmas Loadout](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/christmas-loadout) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Christmas Loadout A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/christmas-loadout?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/christmas-loadout?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/christmas-loadout) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/christmas-loadout?window=all) Price · $165.25 · 254 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $148.72 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 48.94% · 477 openings, odds method Variance · 13.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 93.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 84 openings · below min 7 days · 49.82% ±34.86 438 openings 30 days · 48.94% ±33.40 477 openings since tracking started · 48.94% ±33.40 477 openings -0.5% 76.3% 153.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (15.54% – 82.35%, 477 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/christmas-loadout?window=24h) | 84 | 72.56% ±79.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/christmas-loadout?window=7d) | 438 | 49.82% ±34.9 | −2.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/christmas-loadout) | 477 | 48.94% ±33.4 | −2.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/christmas-loadout?window=all) | 477 | 48.94% ±33.4 | −2.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 483 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $5,849 8,999 gems | 39.3% | 0 | 4.8 | 0.00× | | [Negev \| Mjölnir (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1,284 1,975 gems | 17.3% | 10 | 9.7 | 1.04× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $900 1,385 gems | 12.1% | 5 | 9.7 | 0.52× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $596 917 gems | 8.0% | 7 | 9.7 | 0.72× | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new-2) | 1 in 20 | $131 201 gems | 4.4% | 25 | 24.2 | 1.04× | | [MAG-7 \| Counter Terrace (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-counter-terrace-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $87.62 135 gems | 2.9% | 22 | 24.2 | 0.91× | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $48.56 74.71 gems | 4.9% | 81 | 72.5 | 1.12× | | [MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) | 25.0% | $36.73 56.5 gems | 6.2% | 131 | 120.8 | 1.08× | | [Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-factory-new) | 43.0% | $16.87 25.95 gems | 4.9% | 202 | 207.7 | 0.97× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-factory-new) Hidden $165 254 gems $1,284 1,975 gems 7.77x 2026-11-10 19:15 UTC [Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-factory-new) Hidden $165 254 gems $1,284 1,975 gems 7.77x 2026-11-10 19:13 UTC [Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-factory-new) Hidden $165 254 gems $1,284 1,975 gems 7.77x 2026-11-10 14:13 UTC [Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-factory-new) Hidden $165 254 gems $1,284 1,975 gems 7.77x 2026-11-08 17:31 UTC [Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-factory-new) [Smiling Grizzly](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Smiling%20Grizzly) $165 254 gems $1,284 1,975 gems 7.77x 2026-11-05 21:28 UTC [Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-factory-new) [Dartt](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Dartt) $165 254 gems $1,284 1,975 gems 7.77x 2026-11-05 06:02 UTC [Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-factory-new) Hidden $165 254 gems $1,284 1,975 gems 7.77x 2026-11-05 05:38 UTC [Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-factory-new) Hidden $165 254 gems $1,284 1,975 gems 7.77x 2026-11-05 01:54 UTC [Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-factory-new) Hidden $165 254 gems $1,284 1,975 gems 7.77x 2026-11-04 21:24 UTC [Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-factory-new) [Live @ Kick/JaekCreates](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Live%20%40%20Kick%2FJaekCreates) $165 254 gems $1,284 1,975 gems 7.77x 2026-11-04 00:09 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=christmas-loadout) [MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $165 254 gems $36.73 56.5 gems 0.22x 2026-11-10 20:17 UTC [MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $165 254 gems $36.73 56.5 gems 0.22x 2026-11-10 20:17 UTC [M4A1-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) Hidden $165 254 gems $48.56 74.71 gems 0.29x 2026-11-10 20:17 UTC [MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $165 254 gems $36.73 56.5 gems 0.22x 2026-11-10 20:17 UTC [MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $165 254 gems $36.73 56.5 gems 0.22x 2026-11-10 20:17 UTC [Dual Berettas | Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-factory-new) [Live @ Kick/JaekCreates](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Live%20%40%20Kick%2FJaekCreates) $165 254 gems $16.87 25.95 gems 0.10x 2026-11-10 20:17 UTC [Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 弐 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new-2) Hidden $165 254 gems $131 201 gems 0.79x 2026-11-10 19:17 UTC [Dual Berettas | Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-factory-new) Hidden $165 254 gems $16.87 25.95 gems 0.10x 2026-11-10 19:17 UTC [MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $165 254 gems $36.73 56.5 gems 0.22x 2026-11-10 19:17 UTC [Dual Berettas | Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-factory-new) Hidden $165 254 gems $16.87 25.95 gems 0.10x 2026-11-10 19:17 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $165 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.0% classified 2.0% extraordinary 2.0% gold 2.0% restricted 5.0% mil spec 73.0% red 15.0% best hit $1,284 (7.77x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt