--- title: "Christmas Miracles case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Christmas Miracles ($12.47) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 86.33% over 6,123 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/christmas-miracles rendered: 2026-11-11T17:55Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Christmas Miracles](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/christmas-miracles) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Christmas Miracles A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/christmas-miracles?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/christmas-miracles?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/christmas-miracles) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/christmas-miracles?window=all) Price · $12.47 · 19.19 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $11.23 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.33% · 6,123 openings, odds method Variance · 33.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 67 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 93.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 69.70% ±39.67 815 openings 7 days · 84.63% ±16.19 4,891 openings 30 days · 86.33% ±14.47 6,123 openings since tracking started · 86.33% ±14.47 6,123 openings 29.5% 69.8% 110.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/christmas-miracles?window=24h) | 815 | 69.70% ±39.7 | −1.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/christmas-miracles?window=7d) | 4,891 | 84.63% ±16.2 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/christmas-miracles) | 6,123 | 86.33% ±14.5 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/christmas-miracles?window=all) | 6,123 | 86.33% ±14.5 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,180 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $963 1,482 gems | 42.9% | 28 | 30.9 | 0.91× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $211 324 gems | 18.8% | 64 | 61.8 | 1.04× | | [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $144 221 gems | 12.8% | 62 | 61.8 | 1.00× | | [USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $29.08 44.74 gems | 3.9% | 81 | 92.7 | 0.87× | | [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $19.49 29.98 gems | 5.2% | 165 | 185.4 | 0.89× | | [AUG \| Carved Jade (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $11.69 17.98 gems | 3.1% | 174 | 185.4 | 0.94× | | [SG 553 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 40.0% | $1.95 3 gems | 6.9% | 2,454 | 2472.0 | 0.99× | | [Sawed-Off \| Jungle Thicket (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-jungle-thicket-factory-new) | 50.0% | $1.43 2.2 gems | 6.4% | 3,152 | 3090.0 | 1.02× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) Hidden $12.47 19.19 gems $963 1,482 gems 77.23x 2026-11-11 17:23 UTC [AK-47 | Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) Hidden $12.47 19.19 gems $963 1,482 gems 77.23x 2026-11-11 11:00 UTC [AK-47 | Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) [TL\_HoNest](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/TL_HoNest) $12.47 19.19 gems $963 1,482 gems 77.23x 2026-11-10 12:06 UTC [AK-47 | Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) Hidden $12.47 19.19 gems $963 1,482 gems 77.23x 2026-11-10 00:56 UTC [AK-47 | Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) Hidden $12.47 19.19 gems $963 1,482 gems 77.23x 2026-11-09 16:15 UTC [AK-47 | Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) Hidden $12.47 19.19 gems $963 1,482 gems 77.23x 2026-11-09 00:22 UTC [AK-47 | Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) Hidden $12.47 19.19 gems $963 1,482 gems 77.23x 2026-11-09 00:20 UTC [AK-47 | Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) [i9bash](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/i9bash) $12.47 19.19 gems $963 1,482 gems 77.23x 2026-11-08 21:08 UTC [AK-47 | Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) Hidden $12.47 19.19 gems $963 1,482 gems 77.23x 2026-11-08 08:14 UTC [AK-47 | Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) [paris0743](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/paris0743) $12.47 19.19 gems $963 1,482 gems 77.23x 2026-11-08 08:01 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=christmas-miracles) [Sawed-Off | Jungle Thicket (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-jungle-thicket-factory-new) Hidden $12.47 19.19 gems $1.43 2.2 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 17:55 UTC [Sawed-Off | Jungle Thicket (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-jungle-thicket-factory-new) Hidden $12.47 19.19 gems $1.43 2.2 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 17:55 UTC [SG 553 | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-candy-apple-minimal-wear) [Danny](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Danny) $12.47 19.19 gems $1.95 3 gems 0.16x 2026-11-11 17:55 UTC [Sawed-Off | Jungle Thicket (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-jungle-thicket-factory-new) Hidden $12.47 19.19 gems $1.43 2.2 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 17:55 UTC [Sawed-Off | Jungle Thicket (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-jungle-thicket-factory-new) Hidden $12.47 19.19 gems $1.43 2.2 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 17:55 UTC [SG 553 | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-candy-apple-minimal-wear) Hidden $12.47 19.19 gems $1.95 3 gems 0.16x 2026-11-11 17:55 UTC [Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-minimal-wear) Hidden $12.47 19.19 gems $144 221 gems 11.50x 2026-11-11 17:55 UTC [Sawed-Off | Jungle Thicket (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-jungle-thicket-factory-new) Hidden $12.47 19.19 gems $1.43 2.2 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 17:55 UTC [Sawed-Off | Jungle Thicket (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-jungle-thicket-factory-new) [Katsu](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Katsu) $12.47 19.19 gems $1.43 2.2 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 17:55 UTC [Sawed-Off | Jungle Thicket (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-jungle-thicket-factory-new) Hidden $12.47 19.19 gems $1.43 2.2 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 17:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $12.47 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 3.5% covert 1.0% restricted 1.0% red 1.5% Rare 3.0% industrial 40.0% consumer 50.0% best hit $963 (77.23x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt