---
title: "Chroma 3 Case case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Chroma 3 Case ($1.90) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.82% from 47 items with odds, observed 79.46% over 11.2K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/chroma-3-case
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:42Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Chroma 3 Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/chroma-3-case)

# [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Chroma 3 Case

A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/chroma-3-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/chroma-3-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/chroma-3-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/chroma-3-case?window=all)

Price · $1.90 · 2.92 gems

Advertised RTP · 89.82% · EV $1.70 from 47 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 79.46% · 11.2K openings, odds method

Variance · 156.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 595 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 95.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 1,074 openings · below min

7 days · 76.69% ±25.38 9,326 openings

30 days · 79.46% ±23.18 11.2K openings

since tracking started · 79.46% ±23.18 11.2K openings

10.5% 85.8% 161.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/chroma-3-case?window=24h) | 1,074 | 85.70% ±74.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/chroma-3-case?window=7d) | 9,326 | 76.69% ±25.4 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/chroma-3-case) | 11.2K | 79.46% ±23.2 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/chroma-3-case?window=all) | 11.2K | 79.46% ±23.2 | −0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $934 1,437 gems | 4.4% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $893 1,374 gems | 4.2% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $839 1,291 gems | 3.9% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $806 1,240 gems | 3.8% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $785 1,207 gems | 3.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $734 1,129 gems | 3.4% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $724 1,113 gems | 3.4% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $639 982 gems | 3.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $556 856 gems | 2.6% | 3 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $491 756 gems | 2.3% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Rust Coat (Factory New) knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-rust-coat-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $397 610 gems | 1.9% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $373 574 gems | 1.8% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $358 550 gems | 1.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $354 544 gems | 1.7% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Factory New) knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-rust-coat-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $345 531 gems | 1.6% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $296 455 gems | 1.4% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $280 430 gems | 1.3% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $272 419 gems | 1.3% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $239 367 gems | 1.1% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $237 365 gems | 1.1% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $199 306 gems | 0.9% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $143 220 gems | 0.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $142 218 gems | 0.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Factory New) knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-rust-coat-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $137 210 gems | 0.6% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $109 168 gems | 0.5% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $105 161 gems | 0.5% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Rust Coat (Factory New) knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-rust-coat-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $104 160 gems | 0.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $102 158 gems | 0.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 313 | $74.10 114 gems | 13.9% | 36 | 36.4 | 0.99× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $69.32 107 gems | 0.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Rust Coat (Factory New) knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-rust-coat-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $62.99 96.91 gems | 0.3% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 94 | $8.89 13.68 gems | 5.6% | 148 | 121.3 | 1.22× |
| [AUG \| Fleet Flock (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-factory-new) | 1 in 94 | $6.83 10.5 gems | 4.3% | 116 | 121.3 | 0.96× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-factory-new) | 1 in 94 | $5.77 8.87 gems | 3.6% | 123 | 121.3 | 1.01× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-factory-new) | 1 in 313 | $4.43 6.82 gems | 0.8% | 30 | 36.4 | 0.82× |
| [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $1.68 2.59 gems | 3.2% | 374 | 363.7 | 1.03× |
| [XM1014 \| Black Tie (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $1.14 1.76 gems | 2.1% | 356 | 363.7 | 0.98× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $1.14 1.76 gems | 2.1% | 373 | 363.7 | 1.03× |
| [Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-re-entry-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $0.89 1.37 gems | 1.7% | 360 | 363.7 | 0.99× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $0.88 1.35 gems | 1.6% | 347 | 363.7 | 0.95× |
| [MP9 \| Bioleak (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-factory-new) | 11.4% | $0.16 0.24 gems | 1.0% | 1,300 | 1299.1 | 1.00× |
| [P2000 \| Oceanic (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-oceanic-factory-new) | 11.4% | $0.16 0.24 gems | 1.0% | 1,280 | 1299.1 | 0.99× |
| [SG 553 \| Atlas (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-atlas-factory-new) | 11.4% | $0.14 0.22 gems | 1.0% | 1,342 | 1299.1 | 1.03× |
| [G3SG1 \| Orange Crash (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-crash-factory-new) | 11.4% | $0.14 0.21 gems | 0.9% | 1,293 | 1299.1 | 1.00× |
| [M249 \| Spectre (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-spectre-factory-new) | 11.4% | $0.13 0.2 gems | 0.9% | 1,253 | 1299.1 | 0.96× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-ventilators-factory-new) | 11.4% | $0.12 0.19 gems | 0.8% | 1,323 | 1299.1 | 1.02× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Fubar (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-fubar-well-worn) | 11.4% | $0.06 0.09 gems | 0.4% | 1,305 | 1301.8 | 1.00× |

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) [Compatroll](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Compatroll) $1.90 2.92 gems $934 1,437 gems 492.1x 2026-11-08 00:48 UTC

[★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $1.90 2.92 gems $893 1,374 gems 470.6x 2026-11-10 03:40 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) [TitoDabel juice.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/TitoDabel%20%20juice.gg) $1.90 2.92 gems $806 1,240 gems 424.5x 2026-11-04 13:39 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $1.90 2.92 gems $785 1,207 gems 413.4x 2026-11-08 01:19 UTC

[★ Karambit | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $1.90 2.92 gems $556 856 gems 293.1x 2026-11-05 13:52 UTC

[★ Karambit | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $1.90 2.92 gems $556 856 gems 293.1x 2026-11-04 12:40 UTC

[★ Karambit | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $1.90 2.92 gems $556 856 gems 293.1x 2026-11-03 18:47 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $1.90 2.92 gems $491 756 gems 258.8x 2026-11-05 18:46 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $1.90 2.92 gems $373 574 gems 196.5x 2026-11-05 03:24 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $1.90 2.92 gems $358 550 gems 188.5x 2026-11-08 04:05 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=chroma-3-case)

[P2000 | Oceanic (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-oceanic-factory-new) Hidden $1.90 2.92 gems $0.16 0.24 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[P2000 | Oceanic (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-oceanic-factory-new) Hidden $1.90 2.92 gems $0.16 0.24 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Ventilators (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-ventilators-factory-new) Hidden $1.90 2.92 gems $0.12 0.19 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Ventilators (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-ventilators-factory-new) Hidden $1.90 2.92 gems $0.12 0.19 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC

[G3SG1 | Orange Crash (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-crash-factory-new) Hidden $1.90 2.92 gems $0.14 0.21 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC

[P2000 | Oceanic (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-oceanic-factory-new) Hidden $1.90 2.92 gems $0.16 0.24 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC

[MP9 | Bioleak (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-factory-new) Hidden $1.90 2.92 gems $0.16 0.24 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[MP9 | Bioleak (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-factory-new) Hidden $1.90 2.92 gems $0.16 0.24 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[Galil AR | Firefight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-factory-new) Hidden $1.90 2.92 gems $1.14 1.76 gems 0.60x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[M249 | Spectre (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-spectre-factory-new) Hidden $1.90 2.92 gems $0.13 0.2 gems 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $1.90 | 89.82% | 47 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Covert 0.0% covert 0.8% sunny 0.0% other 0.0% classified 3.2% restricted 16.0% Rare 22.8% mil spec 34.3% milspec 22.9% best hit $934 (492.1x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.82 on average: an expected loss of $10.18 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt