---
title: "Chroma Case case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Chroma Case ($2.38) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.85% from 44 items with odds, observed 93.56% over 5,808 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/chroma-case
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:59Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Chroma Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/chroma-case)

# [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Chroma Case

A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/chroma-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/chroma-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/chroma-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/chroma-case?window=all)

Price · $2.38 · 3.66 gems

Advertised RTP · 89.85% · EV $2.14 from 44 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 93.56% · 5,808 openings, odds method

Variance · 97.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 114 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 91.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 545 openings · below min

7 days · 99.22% ±27.64 4,921 openings

30 days · 93.56% ±25.44 5,808 openings

since tracking started · 93.56% ±25.44 5,808 openings

54.0% 137.8% 221.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/chroma-case?window=24h) | 545 | 137.75% ±83.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/chroma-case?window=7d) | 4,921 | 99.22% ±27.6 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/chroma-case) | 5,808 | 93.56% ±25.4 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/chroma-case?window=all) | 5,808 | 93.56% ±25.4 | +0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 44 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,963 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $934 1,437 gems | 3.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $893 1,374 gems | 3.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $839 1,291 gems | 3.1% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $806 1,240 gems | 3.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $785 1,207 gems | 2.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $734 1,129 gems | 2.7% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $724 1,113 gems | 2.7% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $639 982 gems | 2.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $556 856 gems | 2.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $491 756 gems | 1.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Rust Coat (Factory New) knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-rust-coat-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $397 610 gems | 1.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $373 574 gems | 1.4% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $358 550 gems | 1.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $354 544 gems | 1.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Factory New) knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-rust-coat-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $345 531 gems | 1.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $296 455 gems | 1.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $280 430 gems | 1.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $272 419 gems | 1.0% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $239 367 gems | 0.9% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $237 365 gems | 0.9% | 3 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $199 306 gems | 0.7% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $143 220 gems | 0.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $142 218 gems | 0.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Factory New) knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-rust-coat-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $137 210 gems | 0.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $109 168 gems | 0.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $105 161 gems | 0.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Rust Coat (Factory New) knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-rust-coat-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $104 160 gems | 0.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $102 158 gems | 0.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $69.32 107 gems | 0.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Rust Coat (Factory New) knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-rust-coat-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $62.99 96.91 gems | 0.2% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-field-tested) | 1 in 313 | $39.05 60.08 gems | 5.8% | 18 | 19.1 | 0.94× |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 313 | $19.47 29.96 gems | 2.9% | 23 | 19.1 | 1.21× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 94 | $14.89 22.9 gems | 7.4% | 59 | 63.6 | 0.93× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) | 1 in 94 | $14.12 21.73 gems | 7.0% | 74 | 63.6 | 1.16× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) | 1 in 94 | $4.63 7.12 gems | 2.3% | 47 | 63.6 | 0.74× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $2.96 4.56 gems | 5.5% | 249 | 238.2 | 1.05× |
| [MAC-10 \| Malachite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1.61 2.48 gems | 3.0% | 247 | 238.2 | 1.04× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1.57 2.41 gems | 2.9% | 229 | 238.2 | 0.96× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1.53 2.36 gems | 2.9% | 243 | 238.2 | 1.02× |
| [MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) | 16.0% | $1.10 1.69 gems | 8.2% | 970 | 953.1 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-factory-new) | 16.0% | $0.30 0.46 gems | 2.2% | 961 | 953.1 | 1.01× |
| [M249 \| System Lock (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-factory-new) | 16.0% | $0.29 0.45 gems | 2.2% | 947 | 953.1 | 0.99× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Grotto (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-factory-new) | 16.0% | $0.24 0.37 gems | 1.8% | 941 | 953.1 | 0.99× |
| [XM1014 \| Quicksilver (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-quicksilver-factory-new) | 16.0% | $0.24 0.37 gems | 1.8% | 937 | 954.4 | 0.98× |

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-ultraviolet-factory-new) [c1ro](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/c1ro) $2.38 3.66 gems $839 1,291 gems 352.7x 2026-11-06 12:11 UTC

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $2.38 3.66 gems $734 1,129 gems 308.4x 2026-11-07 02:13 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $2.38 3.66 gems $724 1,113 gems 304.2x 2026-11-05 01:49 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $2.38 3.66 gems $724 1,113 gems 304.2x 2026-11-02 23:55 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $2.38 3.66 gems $639 982 gems 268.4x 2026-11-10 15:53 UTC

[★ Karambit | Rust Coat (Factory New) knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $2.38 3.66 gems $397 610 gems 166.7x 2026-11-06 17:21 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $2.38 3.66 gems $373 574 gems 156.8x 2026-11-09 09:58 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $2.38 3.66 gems $373 574 gems 156.8x 2026-11-07 19:10 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $2.38 3.66 gems $272 419 gems 114.4x 2026-11-07 23:02 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $2.38 3.66 gems $239 367 gems 100.4x 2026-11-09 09:55 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=chroma-case)

[Glock-18 | Catacombs (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-factory-new) Hidden $2.38 3.66 gems $0.30 0.46 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 14:23 UTC

[MP9 | Deadly Poison (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) Hidden $2.38 3.66 gems $1.10 1.69 gems 0.46x 2026-11-11 14:23 UTC

[MP9 | Deadly Poison (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) Hidden $2.38 3.66 gems $1.10 1.69 gems 0.46x 2026-11-11 14:23 UTC

[M249 | System Lock (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-factory-new) [rendeto1](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/rendeto1) $2.38 3.66 gems $0.29 0.45 gems 0.12x 2026-11-11 14:23 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Serenity (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-factory-new) Hidden $2.38 3.66 gems $1.57 2.41 gems 0.66x 2026-11-11 14:21 UTC

[Glock-18 | Catacombs (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-factory-new) Hidden $2.38 3.66 gems $0.30 0.46 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 14:21 UTC

[MAC-10 | Malachite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-factory-new) Hidden $2.38 3.66 gems $1.61 2.48 gems 0.68x 2026-11-11 14:21 UTC

[Glock-18 | Catacombs (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-factory-new) [rendeto1](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/rendeto1) $2.38 3.66 gems $0.30 0.46 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 14:21 UTC

[Glock-18 | Catacombs (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-factory-new) Hidden $2.38 3.66 gems $0.30 0.46 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 14:20 UTC

[Glock-18 | Catacombs (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-factory-new) Hidden $2.38 3.66 gems $0.30 0.46 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 14:20 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $2.38 | 89.85% | 44 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Covert 0.0% covert 0.8% sunny 0.0% other 0.0% classified 3.2% restricted 16.0% mil spec 48.0% Mil Spec 16.0% Rare 16.0% best hit $839 (352.7x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.85 on average: an expected loss of $10.15 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt