---
title: "Clash Case case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Clash Case ($126.69) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 18 items with odds, observed 90.98% over 680 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/clash-case
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:22Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Clash Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/clash-case)

# [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Clash Case

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/clash-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/clash-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/clash-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/clash-case?window=all)

Price · $126.69 · 195 gems

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $114.02 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.98% · 680 openings, odds method

Variance · 9.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 31 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 88.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 57 openings · below min

7 days · 91.13% ±25.45 544 openings

30 days · 90.98% ±22.76 680 openings

since tracking started · 90.98% ±22.76 680 openings

-0.5% 58.8% 118.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/clash-case?window=24h) | 57 | 38.66% ±78.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/clash-case?window=7d) | 544 | 91.13% ±25.4 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/clash-case) | 680 | 90.98% ±22.8 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/clash-case?window=all) | 680 | 90.98% ±22.8 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 680 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $2,777 4,273 gems | 12.2% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.47× |
| [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $2,600 4,000 gems | 11.4% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.18× |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $2,455 3,777 gems | 10.8% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.18× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $2,030 3,123 gems | 13.4% | 4 | 5.1 | 0.78× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,229 1,891 gems | 10.8% | 3 | 6.8 | 0.44× |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $681 1,048 gems | 7.5% | 6 | 8.5 | 0.71× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Kami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $396 609 gems | 5.2% | 14 | 10.2 | 1.37× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $196 302 gems | 4.3% | 18 | 17.0 | 1.06× |
| [AUG \| Midnight Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $142 219 gems | 3.7% | 23 | 20.4 | 1.13× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $126 193 gems | 5.5% | 31 | 34.0 | 0.91× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $104 160 gems | 4.6% | 34 | 34.0 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $92.22 142 gems | 4.0% | 35 | 34.0 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $41.37 63.65 gems | 1.8% | 32 | 34.0 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-see-ya-later-factory-new) | 10.0% | $23.89 36.75 gems | 2.1% | 82 | 68.0 | 1.21× |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-factory-new) | 10.0% | $12.01 18.48 gems | 1.1% | 64 | 68.0 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-factory-new) | 10.0% | $11.38 17.5 gems | 1.0% | 66 | 68.0 | 0.97× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) | 18.5% | $3.82 5.88 gems | 0.6% | 129 | 125.8 | 1.03× |
| [MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.63 0.97 gems | 0.1% | 126 | 136.0 | 0.93× |

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $127 195 gems $2,777 4,273 gems 21.92x 2026-11-09 16:50 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $127 195 gems $2,777 4,273 gems 21.92x 2026-11-07 21:38 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $127 195 gems $2,777 4,273 gems 21.92x 2026-11-05 23:34 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $127 195 gems $2,777 4,273 gems 21.92x 2026-11-04 04:46 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $127 195 gems $2,777 4,273 gems 21.92x 2026-11-04 04:44 UTC

[★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $127 195 gems $2,600 4,000 gems 20.52x 2026-11-09 12:35 UTC

[★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $127 195 gems $2,600 4,000 gems 20.52x 2026-11-07 21:30 UTC

[★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $127 195 gems $2,600 4,000 gems 20.52x 2026-11-04 17:23 UTC

[★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) [kick.com/davnh $300 RACE](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/kick.com%2Fdavnh%20%24300%20RACE) $127 195 gems $2,600 4,000 gems 20.52x 2026-11-04 04:44 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $127 195 gems $2,455 3,777 gems 19.38x 2026-11-09 16:52 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=clash-case)

[Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new) Hidden $127 195 gems $396 609 gems 3.12x 2026-11-10 22:03 UTC

[AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-factory-new) Hidden $127 195 gems $11.38 17.5 gems 0.09x 2026-11-10 22:03 UTC

[MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-factory-new) Hidden $127 195 gems $0.63 0.97 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:03 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new) Hidden $127 195 gems $396 609 gems 3.12x 2026-11-10 20:41 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | See Ya Later (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-see-ya-later-factory-new) Hidden $127 195 gems $23.89 36.75 gems 0.19x 2026-11-10 20:41 UTC

[AWP | Sun in Leo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-factory-new) Hidden $127 195 gems $12.01 18.48 gems 0.09x 2026-11-10 20:41 UTC

[MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-factory-new) Hidden $127 195 gems $0.63 0.97 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 20:41 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) Hidden $127 195 gems $3.82 5.88 gems 0.03x 2026-11-10 20:41 UTC

[MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-factory-new) [KICK/JUSTSAN666](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/KICK%2FJUSTSAN666) $127 195 gems $0.63 0.97 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 20:41 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | See Ya Later (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-see-ya-later-factory-new) Hidden $127 195 gems $23.89 36.75 gems 0.19x 2026-11-10 20:15 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $127 | 90.00% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed contraband 0.5% covert 29.0% mil spec 1.5% sunny 2.5% restricted 3.0% classified 23.5% industrial 10.0% Ancient 10.0% Mythical 20.0% best hit $2,777 (21.92x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt