---
title: "Classic Collection case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Classic Collection ($8.62) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 16 items with odds, observed 85.28% over 6,437 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/classic-collection
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:19Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Classic Collection](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/classic-collection)

# [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Classic Collection

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/classic-collection?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/classic-collection?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/classic-collection) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/classic-collection?window=all)

Price · $8.62 · 13.26 gems

Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $7.76 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.28% · 6,437 openings, odds method

Variance · 18.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 47 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 92.48% ±32.76 671 openings

7 days · 86.13% ±11.80 5,176 openings

30 days · 85.28% ±10.58 6,437 openings

since tracking started · 85.28% ±10.58 6,437 openings

59.0% 92.5% 126.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/classic-collection?window=24h) | 671 | 92.48% ±32.8 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/classic-collection?window=7d) | 5,176 | 86.13% ±11.8 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/classic-collection) | 6,437 | 85.28% ±10.6 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/classic-collection?window=all) | 6,437 | 85.28% ±10.6 | −0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,517 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $784 1,207 gems | 5.1% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $353 543 gems | 9.1% | 12 | 13.0 | 0.92× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $241 370 gems | 9.3% | 20 | 19.6 | 1.02× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $235 361 gems | 9.1% | 11 | 19.6 | 0.56× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Vanilla (Factory New) knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-vanilla-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $209 321 gems | 8.1% | 15 | 19.6 | 0.77× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $142 218 gems | 9.2% | 40 | 32.6 | 1.23× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $121 186 gems | 7.8% | 31 | 32.6 | 0.95× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $109 168 gems | 8.5% | 46 | 39.1 | 1.18× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $94.56 145 gems | 9.1% | 46 | 48.9 | 0.94× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-urban-masked-battle-scarred) | 1 in 133 | $87.26 134 gems | 8.4% | 53 | 48.9 | 1.08× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $84.54 130 gems | 8.2% | 46 | 48.9 | 0.94× |
| [Charm \| Baby Karat CT charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-baby-karat-ct) | 1 in 20 | $7.77 11.95 gems | 5.0% | 332 | 325.9 | 1.02× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Teacup charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-teacup) | 10.0% | $1.14 1.75 gems | 1.5% | 618 | 651.7 | 0.95× |
| [Charm \| Baby's AK charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-babys-ak) | 25.0% | $0.23 0.35 gems | 0.7% | 1,607 | 1629.3 | 0.99× |
| [Charm \| Whittle Knife charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-whittle-knife) | 25.0% | $0.21 0.32 gems | 0.7% | 1,586 | 1629.3 | 0.97× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Cap Gun charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-cap-gun) | 30.0% | $0.09 0.14 gems | 0.4% | 2,052 | 1955.1 | 1.05× |

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) [sten 7](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/sten%207) $8.62 13.26 gems $784 1,207 gems 91.02x 2026-11-10 08:12 UTC

[★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $8.62 13.26 gems $784 1,207 gems 91.02x 2026-11-03 02:29 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=classic-collection)

[Charm | Baby Karat CT charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-baby-karat-ct) Hidden $8.62 13.26 gems $7.77 11.95 gems 0.90x 2026-11-11 17:09 UTC

[Charm | Baby's AK charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-babys-ak) Hidden $8.62 13.26 gems $0.23 0.35 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:09 UTC

[Charm | Baby Karat CT charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-baby-karat-ct) Hidden $8.62 13.26 gems $7.77 11.95 gems 0.90x 2026-11-11 17:09 UTC

[Charm | Whittle Knife charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-whittle-knife) Hidden $8.62 13.26 gems $0.21 0.32 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:09 UTC

[Charm | Whittle Knife charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-whittle-knife) Hidden $8.62 13.26 gems $0.21 0.32 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:09 UTC

[Charm | Baby's AK charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-babys-ak) [VYCK4](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/VYCK4) $8.62 13.26 gems $0.23 0.35 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:09 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Cap Gun charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-cap-gun) Hidden $8.62 13.26 gems $0.09 0.14 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:07 UTC

[Charm | Baby's AK charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-babys-ak) Hidden $8.62 13.26 gems $0.23 0.35 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:07 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Teacup charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-teacup) Hidden $8.62 13.26 gems $1.14 1.75 gems 0.13x 2026-11-11 17:07 UTC

[Charm | Baby's AK charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-babys-ak) Hidden $8.62 13.26 gems $0.23 0.35 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:07 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $8.62 | 89.98% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.7% knifes 0.3% other 0.3% Covert 0.5% covert knife 2.3% rare 5.0% #8847ff 10.0% Rare 80.0% best hit $784 (91.02x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt