--- title: "Closed Case case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Closed Case ($77.24) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 8 items with odds, observed 219.17% over 2,147 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/closed-case rendered: 2026-11-11T21:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Closed Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/closed-case) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Closed Case A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/closed-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/closed-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/closed-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/closed-case?window=all) Price · $77.24 · 119 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $69.51 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 219.17% · 2,147 openings, odds method Variance · 511.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 1,000 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 98.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 130 openings · below min 7 days · 1,581 openings · below min 30 days · 2,147 openings · below min since tracking started · 2,147 openings · below min 89.5% 524.5% 959.5% **Small sample.** 2,147 openings and 2.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/closed-case?window=24h) | 130 | 570.02% ±388.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/closed-case?window=7d) | 1,581 | 245.86% ±111.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/closed-case) | 2,147 | 219.17% ±95.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/closed-case?window=all) | 2,147 | 219.17% ±95.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,203 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) (Blue Gem) (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new-blue-gem-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $55.3K 85,000 gems | 79.5% | 6 | 2.2 | 2.72× | | [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $951 1,463 gems | 5.5% | 11 | 8.8 | 1.25× | | [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $347 534 gems | 2.5% | 11 | 11.0 | 1.00× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $117 180 gems | 1.7% | 16 | 22.0 | 0.73× | | [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $48.75 75 gems | 2.1% | 54 | 66.1 | 0.82× | | [MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $43.71 67.25 gems | 3.1% | 112 | 110.2 | 1.02× | | [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-factory-new) | 10.0% | $9.42 14.49 gems | 1.4% | 205 | 220.3 | 0.93× | | [Five-SeveN \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-heat-treated-minimal-wear) | 80.0% | $3.70 5.69 gems | 4.3% | 1,788 | 1762.4 | 1.01× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) (Blue Gem) (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new-blue-gem-factory-new) [HayzeusC](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/HayzeusC) $77.24 119 gems $55.3K 85,000 gems 715.3x 2026-11-11 18:08 UTC [AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) (Blue Gem) (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new-blue-gem-factory-new) [CODE:666 750LB 300GW](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/CODE%3A666%20750LB%20300GW) $77.24 119 gems $55.3K 85,000 gems 715.3x 2026-11-09 22:29 UTC [AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) (Blue Gem) (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new-blue-gem-factory-new) Hidden $77.24 119 gems $55.3K 85,000 gems 715.3x 2026-11-08 11:50 UTC [AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) (Blue Gem) (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new-blue-gem-factory-new) Hidden $77.24 119 gems $55.3K 85,000 gems 715.3x 2026-11-07 20:21 UTC [AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) (Blue Gem) (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new-blue-gem-factory-new) Hidden $77.24 119 gems $55.3K 85,000 gems 715.3x 2026-11-06 23:25 UTC [AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) (Blue Gem) (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new-blue-gem-factory-new) Hidden $77.24 119 gems $55.3K 85,000 gems 715.3x 2026-11-04 17:48 UTC [★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $77.24 119 gems $951 1,463 gems 12.31x 2026-11-11 00:47 UTC [★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) [CODE:666 750LB 300GW](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/CODE%3A666%20750LB%20300GW) $77.24 119 gems $951 1,463 gems 12.31x 2026-11-09 22:29 UTC [★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $77.24 119 gems $951 1,463 gems 12.31x 2026-11-07 22:47 UTC [★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $77.24 119 gems $951 1,463 gems 12.31x 2026-11-06 23:24 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=closed-case) [Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-heat-treated-minimal-wear) Hidden $77.24 119 gems $3.70 5.69 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 21:45 UTC [Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-heat-treated-minimal-wear) Hidden $77.24 119 gems $3.70 5.69 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 21:45 UTC [MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $77.24 119 gems $43.71 67.25 gems 0.57x 2026-11-11 21:45 UTC [Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-heat-treated-minimal-wear) [Camel No. 9](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Camel%20No.%209) $77.24 119 gems $3.70 5.69 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 21:45 UTC [Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-heat-treated-minimal-wear) Hidden $77.24 119 gems $3.70 5.69 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 20:55 UTC [Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-heat-treated-minimal-wear) Hidden $77.24 119 gems $3.70 5.69 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 20:55 UTC [Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-heat-treated-minimal-wear) Hidden $77.24 119 gems $3.70 5.69 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 20:55 UTC [Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-heat-treated-minimal-wear) Hidden $77.24 119 gems $3.70 5.69 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 20:55 UTC [MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $77.24 119 gems $43.71 67.25 gems 0.57x 2026-11-11 20:55 UTC [Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-heat-treated-minimal-wear) [Live kick/vaultycs](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Live%20kick%2Fvaultycs) $77.24 119 gems $3.70 5.69 gems 0.05x 2026-11-11 20:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $77.24 | 89.99% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 0.1% covert 0.9% sunny 1.0% pink 3.0% restricted 15.0% violet 80.0% best hit $55.3K (715.3x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt