--- title: "Cold & Hard case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Cold & Hard ($6.34) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 10 items with odds, observed 93.61% over 3,443 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cold-and-hard rendered: 2026-11-11T19:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Cold & Hard](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cold-and-hard) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Cold & Hard A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cold-and-hard?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cold-and-hard?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cold-and-hard) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cold-and-hard?window=all) Price · $6.34 · 9.75 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $5.70 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.61% · 3,443 openings, odds method Variance · 6.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 109.54% ±29.74 264 openings 7 days · 93.63% ±8.88 2,959 openings 30 days · 93.61% ±8.23 3,443 openings since tracking started · 93.61% ±8.23 3,443 openings 79.0% 109.5% 140.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cold-and-hard?window=24h) | 264 | 109.54% ±29.7 | +1.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cold-and-hard?window=7d) | 2,959 | 93.63% ±8.88 | +0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cold-and-hard) | 3,443 | 93.61% ±8.23 | +0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cold-and-hard?window=all) | 3,443 | 93.61% ±8.23 | +0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,469 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Survival Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $99.35 153 gems | 17.4% | 41 | 34.7 | 1.18× | | [Sawed-Off \| Copper (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-copper-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $90.80 140 gems | 15.9% | 41 | 34.7 | 1.18× | | [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $38.50 59.23 gems | 20.3% | 100 | 104.1 | 0.96× | | [Tec-9 \| Brass (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brass-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $28.57 43.95 gems | 15.0% | 87 | 104.1 | 0.84× | | [Glock-18 \| Brass (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $25.48 39.2 gems | 13.4% | 108 | 104.1 | 1.04× | | [MAG-7 \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-silver-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $11.51 17.7 gems | 10.1% | 182 | 173.5 | 1.05× | | [UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-field-tested) | 20.0% | $1.28 1.97 gems | 4.5% | 647 | 693.8 | 0.93× | | [Five-SeveN \| Silver Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-silver-quartz-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $0.53 0.82 gems | 1.9% | 725 | 693.8 | 1.04× | | [XM1014 \| Blue Steel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.24 0.37 gems | 0.8% | 670 | 693.8 | 0.97× | | [P250 \| Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) | 24.0% | $0.16 0.25 gems | 0.7% | 868 | 832.6 | 1.04× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=cold-and-hard) [Tec-9 | Brass (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brass-factory-new) Hidden $6.34 9.75 gems $28.57 43.95 gems 4.51x 2026-11-11 18:25 UTC [UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-field-tested) Hidden $6.34 9.75 gems $1.28 1.97 gems 0.20x 2026-11-11 18:25 UTC [P250 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $6.34 9.75 gems $0.16 0.25 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:25 UTC [XM1014 | Blue Steel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $6.34 9.75 gems $0.24 0.37 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:25 UTC [UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-field-tested) Hidden $6.34 9.75 gems $1.28 1.97 gems 0.20x 2026-11-11 18:25 UTC [Glock-18 | Brass (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-minimal-wear) [CodeWILDCS 2K LB](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/CodeWILDCS%202K%20LB) $6.34 9.75 gems $25.48 39.2 gems 4.02x 2026-11-11 18:25 UTC [UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-field-tested) Hidden $6.34 9.75 gems $1.28 1.97 gems 0.20x 2026-11-11 18:24 UTC [Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-silver-quartz-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.34 9.75 gems $0.53 0.82 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 18:24 UTC [P250 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $6.34 9.75 gems $0.16 0.25 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:24 UTC [Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-silver-quartz-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.34 9.75 gems $0.53 0.82 gems 0.08x 2026-11-11 18:24 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $6.34 | 89.99% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 1 20.0% covert knife 1.0% mil spec 24.0% restricted 6.0% #87c7ff 5.0% industrial 44.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt