--- title: "Contraband Case case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Contraband Case ($153.93) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 116.15% over 216 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/contraband-case rendered: 2026-11-11T18:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Contraband Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/contraband-case) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Contraband Case A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/contraband-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/contraband-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/contraband-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/contraband-case?window=all) Price · $153.93 · 237 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $138.54 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 116.15% · 216 openings, odds method Variance · 5.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 34 openings · below min 7 days · 106.73% ±38.24 152 openings 30 days · 116.15% ±32.08 216 openings since tracking started · 116.15% ±32.08 216 openings 57.5% 139.0% 220.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/contraband-case?window=24h) | 34 | 138.99% ±80.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/contraband-case?window=7d) | 152 | 106.73% ±38.2 | +0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/contraband-case) | 216 | 116.15% ±32.1 | +1.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/contraband-case?window=all) | 216 | 116.15% ±32.1 | +1.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 216 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $2,611 4,017 gems | 18.8% | 5 | 2.2 | 2.31× | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1,632 2,511 gems | 23.6% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.69× | | [Souvenir AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1,136 1,747 gems | 16.4% | 8 | 4.3 | 1.85× | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $480 738 gems | 8.7% | 5 | 5.4 | 0.93× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $217 334 gems | 3.9% | 4 | 5.4 | 0.74× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $101 155 gems | 3.6% | 6 | 10.8 | 0.56× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $80.60 124 gems | 2.9% | 10 | 10.8 | 0.93× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-rattler-factory-new) | 10.0% | $69.55 107 gems | 5.0% | 28 | 21.6 | 1.30× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate-factory-new) | 35.0% | $39.33 60.5 gems | 9.9% | 73 | 75.6 | 0.97× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-rust-coat-well-worn) | 35.0% | $28.20 43.38 gems | 7.1% | 74 | 75.6 | 0.98× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir AWP | The Prince (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-the-prince-factory-new) Hidden $154 237 gems $2,611 4,017 gems 16.96x 2026-11-10 19:27 UTC [Souvenir AWP | The Prince (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-the-prince-factory-new) Hidden $154 237 gems $2,611 4,017 gems 16.96x 2026-11-10 19:25 UTC [Souvenir AWP | The Prince (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-the-prince-factory-new) Hidden $154 237 gems $2,611 4,017 gems 16.96x 2026-11-05 12:46 UTC [Souvenir AWP | The Prince (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-the-prince-factory-new) [motsibaerli](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/motsibaerli) $154 237 gems $2,611 4,017 gems 16.96x 2026-11-04 18:53 UTC [Souvenir AWP | The Prince (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-the-prince-factory-new) Hidden $154 237 gems $2,611 4,017 gems 16.96x 2026-11-03 20:17 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $154 237 gems $1,632 2,511 gems 10.60x 2026-11-05 12:41 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $154 237 gems $1,632 2,511 gems 10.60x 2026-11-04 18:53 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $154 237 gems $1,632 2,511 gems 10.60x 2026-11-03 20:37 UTC [Souvenir AUG | Hot Rod (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-hot-rod-factory-new) [Headed](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Headed) $154 237 gems $1,136 1,747 gems 7.38x 2026-11-10 17:46 UTC [Souvenir AUG | Hot Rod (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $154 237 gems $1,136 1,747 gems 7.38x 2026-11-10 14:15 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=contraband-case) [★ Hydra Gloves | Emerald (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-emerald-factory-new) Hidden $154 237 gems $101 155 gems 0.65x 2026-11-11 10:43 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $154 237 gems $39.33 60.5 gems 0.26x 2026-11-11 10:43 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-rust-coat-well-worn) Hidden $154 237 gems $28.20 43.38 gems 0.18x 2026-11-11 10:43 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $154 237 gems $39.33 60.5 gems 0.26x 2026-11-11 10:43 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $154 237 gems $39.33 60.5 gems 0.26x 2026-11-11 10:43 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-rust-coat-well-worn) [rami](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/rami) $154 237 gems $28.20 43.38 gems 0.18x 2026-11-11 10:43 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) Hidden $154 237 gems $480 738 gems 3.12x 2026-11-10 21:52 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $154 237 gems $39.33 60.5 gems 0.26x 2026-11-10 21:52 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $154 237 gems $39.33 60.5 gems 0.26x 2026-11-10 21:52 UTC [★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-rattler-factory-new) [$1k LB - Code \*STV\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%241k%20LB%20-%20Code%20*STV*-8659005) $154 237 gems $69.55 107 gems 0.45x 2026-11-10 21:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $154 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 5.5% covert 37.0% extraordinary 17.5% Extraordinary 5.0% covert knife 35.0% best hit $2,611 (16.96x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt