--- title: "Convict Case case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Convict Case ($14.40) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 10 items with odds, observed 87.04% over 2,147 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/convict-case rendered: 2026-11-11T15:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Convict Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/convict-case) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Convict Case A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/convict-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/convict-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/convict-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/convict-case?window=all) Price · $14.40 · 22.16 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $12.96 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.04% · 2,147 openings, odds method Variance · 17.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 83.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 103.20% ±47.29 304 openings 7 days · 86.83% ±19.81 1,733 openings 30 days · 87.04% ±17.80 2,147 openings since tracking started · 87.04% ±17.80 2,147 openings 55.5% 103.3% 151.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/convict-case?window=24h) | 304 | 103.20% ±47.3 | +0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/convict-case?window=7d) | 1,733 | 86.83% ±19.8 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/convict-case) | 2,147 | 87.04% ±17.8 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/convict-case?window=all) | 2,147 | 87.04% ±17.8 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,183 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $763 1,174 gems | 29.4% | 10 | 10.9 | 0.92× | | [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $241 370 gems | 18.6% | 25 | 21.8 | 1.15× | | [Glock-18 \| Franklin (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $110 170 gems | 12.8% | 22 | 32.7 | 0.67× | | [AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $70.34 108 gems | 10.9% | 50 | 43.7 | 1.15× | | [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $29.25 45 gems | 6.8% | 75 | 65.5 | 1.15× | | [Special Agent Ava \| FBI agent · master](https://gambatracker.com/items/special-agent-ava-fbi) | 1 in 25 | $21.81 33.56 gems | 6.7% | 72 | 87.3 | 0.82× | | [Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $18.13 27.89 gems | 7.0% | 102 | 109.2 | 0.93× | | [Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $6.79 10.44 gems | 3.1% | 143 | 131.0 | 1.09× | | [MP7 \| Vault Heist (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-vault-heist-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $3.25 5 gems | 1.8% | 149 | 152.8 | 0.98× | | [Dual Berettas \| Heist (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-heist-factory-new) | 70.0% | $0.55 0.84 gems | 2.9% | 1,535 | 1528.1 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION! (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-factory-new) Hidden $14.40 22.16 gems $763 1,174 gems 53.00x 2026-11-11 00:55 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION! (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-factory-new) Hidden $14.40 22.16 gems $763 1,174 gems 53.00x 2026-11-09 13:39 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION! (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-factory-new) Hidden $14.40 22.16 gems $763 1,174 gems 53.00x 2026-11-09 07:10 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION! (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-factory-new) Hidden $14.40 22.16 gems $763 1,174 gems 53.00x 2026-11-08 08:00 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION! (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-factory-new) Hidden $14.40 22.16 gems $763 1,174 gems 53.00x 2026-11-07 01:20 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION! (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-factory-new) Hidden $14.40 22.16 gems $763 1,174 gems 53.00x 2026-11-06 05:08 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION! (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-factory-new) [wooguz](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/wooguz) $14.40 22.16 gems $763 1,174 gems 53.00x 2026-11-06 04:51 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION! (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-factory-new) Hidden $14.40 22.16 gems $763 1,174 gems 53.00x 2026-11-04 23:03 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION! (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-factory-new) Hidden $14.40 22.16 gems $763 1,174 gems 53.00x 2026-11-04 04:08 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION! (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-factory-new) Hidden $14.40 22.16 gems $763 1,174 gems 53.00x 2026-11-03 05:57 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=convict-case) [AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) Hidden $14.40 22.16 gems $241 370 gems 16.71x 2026-11-11 15:01 UTC [Dual Berettas | Heist (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-heist-factory-new) Hidden $14.40 22.16 gems $0.55 0.84 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:01 UTC [Special Agent Ava | FBI agent · master](https://gambatracker.com/items/special-agent-ava-fbi) Hidden $14.40 22.16 gems $21.81 33.56 gems 1.51x 2026-11-11 15:01 UTC [Dual Berettas | Heist (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-heist-factory-new) Hidden $14.40 22.16 gems $0.55 0.84 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:01 UTC [MP7 | Vault Heist (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-vault-heist-factory-new) Hidden $14.40 22.16 gems $3.25 5 gems 0.23x 2026-11-11 15:01 UTC [Dual Berettas | Heist (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-heist-factory-new) [TTHD](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/TTHD) $14.40 22.16 gems $0.55 0.84 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:01 UTC [Dual Berettas | Heist (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-heist-factory-new) Hidden $14.40 22.16 gems $0.55 0.84 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up-minimal-wear) Hidden $14.40 22.16 gems $6.79 10.44 gems 0.47x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [Dual Berettas | Heist (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-heist-factory-new) Hidden $14.40 22.16 gems $0.55 0.84 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [Dual Berettas | Heist (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-heist-factory-new) Hidden $14.40 22.16 gems $0.55 0.84 gems 0.04x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $14.40 | 89.99% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.5% covert 4.0% Mythical 1.5% classified 2.0% master 4.0% blue 5.0% #8847ff 6.0% industrial 7.0% Common 70.0% best hit $763 (53.00x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt