--- title: "Cortisol Spike case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Cortisol Spike ($51.99) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 9 items with odds, observed 110.14% over 498 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cortisol-spike rendered: 2026-11-11T19:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Cortisol Spike](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cortisol-spike) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Cortisol Spike A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cortisol-spike?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cortisol-spike?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cortisol-spike) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cortisol-spike?window=all) Price · $51.99 · 79.99 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $46.79 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 110.14% · 498 openings, odds method Variance · 5.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 120.39% ±37.01 162 openings 7 days · 115.04% ±23.24 411 openings 30 days · 110.14% ±21.11 498 openings since tracking started · 110.14% ±21.11 498 openings 82.5% 120.3% 158.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cortisol-spike?window=24h) | 162 | 120.39% ±37.0 | +1.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cortisol-spike?window=7d) | 411 | 115.04% ±23.2 | +2.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cortisol-spike) | 498 | 110.14% ±21.1 | +1.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cortisol-spike?window=all) | 498 | 110.14% ±21.1 | +1.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 498 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-consequence-of-the-jinn-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $642 988 gems | 41.2% | 21 | 14.9 | 1.41× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Black Box (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-black-box-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $401 617 gems | 25.7% | 17 | 14.9 | 1.14× | | [M4A4 \| Falak (Factory New) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-falak-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $77.35 119 gems | 6.6% | 20 | 19.9 | 1.00× | | [AUG \| Lil' Pig (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $55.85 85.93 gems | 6.0% | 34 | 24.9 | 1.37× | | [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-factory-new) | 10.0% | $37.58 57.82 gems | 8.0% | 53 | 49.8 | 1.06× | | [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-field-tested) | 15.0% | $17.22 26.49 gems | 5.5% | 74 | 74.7 | 0.99× | | [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $9.78 15.05 gems | 4.2% | 95 | 99.6 | 0.95× | | [G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-the-executioner-field-tested) | 20.0% | $5.75 8.85 gems | 2.5% | 86 | 99.6 | 0.86× | | [P90 \| Neoqueen (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.79 1.21 gems | 0.3% | 98 | 99.6 | 0.98× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-consequence-of-the-jinn-factory-new) Hidden $51.99 79.99 gems $642 988 gems 12.35x 2026-11-11 19:14 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-consequence-of-the-jinn-factory-new) Hidden $51.99 79.99 gems $642 988 gems 12.35x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-consequence-of-the-jinn-factory-new) Hidden $51.99 79.99 gems $642 988 gems 12.35x 2026-11-11 10:11 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-consequence-of-the-jinn-factory-new) Hidden $51.99 79.99 gems $642 988 gems 12.35x 2026-11-11 10:09 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-consequence-of-the-jinn-factory-new) Hidden $51.99 79.99 gems $642 988 gems 12.35x 2026-11-11 10:06 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-consequence-of-the-jinn-factory-new) Hidden $51.99 79.99 gems $642 988 gems 12.35x 2026-11-11 10:06 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-consequence-of-the-jinn-factory-new) [duccster](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/duccster) $51.99 79.99 gems $642 988 gems 12.35x 2026-11-11 09:54 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-consequence-of-the-jinn-factory-new) Hidden $51.99 79.99 gems $642 988 gems 12.35x 2026-11-10 23:51 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-consequence-of-the-jinn-factory-new) Hidden $51.99 79.99 gems $642 988 gems 12.35x 2026-11-10 20:46 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-consequence-of-the-jinn-factory-new) Hidden $51.99 79.99 gems $642 988 gems 12.35x 2026-11-08 17:45 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=cortisol-spike) [AUG | Lil' Pig (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-factory-new) Hidden $51.99 79.99 gems $55.85 85.93 gems 1.07x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC [SG 553 | Colony IV (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-minimal-wear) Hidden $51.99 79.99 gems $9.78 15.05 gems 0.19x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC [SG 553 | Colony IV (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-minimal-wear) Hidden $51.99 79.99 gems $9.78 15.05 gems 0.19x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC [SG 553 | Colony IV (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-minimal-wear) Hidden $51.99 79.99 gems $9.78 15.05 gems 0.19x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC [SG 553 | Colony IV (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-minimal-wear) Hidden $51.99 79.99 gems $9.78 15.05 gems 0.19x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC [SG 553 | Colony IV (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-minimal-wear) [thegamblingbandits.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/thegamblingbandits.com) $51.99 79.99 gems $9.78 15.05 gems 0.19x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Black Box (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-black-box-minimal-wear) Hidden $51.99 79.99 gems $401 617 gems 7.71x 2026-11-11 19:14 UTC [G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-the-executioner-field-tested) Hidden $51.99 79.99 gems $5.75 8.85 gems 0.11x 2026-11-11 19:14 UTC [M4A4 | Falak (Factory New) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-falak-factory-new) Hidden $51.99 79.99 gems $77.35 119 gems 1.49x 2026-11-11 19:14 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Black Box (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-black-box-minimal-wear) Hidden $51.99 79.99 gems $401 617 gems 7.71x 2026-11-11 19:14 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $51.99 | 89.99% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 6.0% #d32ce6 4.0% classified 45.0% covert 10.0% restricted 15.0% #8847ff 20.0% best hit $642 (12.35x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt