--- title: "Counting Sheep case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Counting Sheep ($65.59) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 7 items with odds, observed 100.40% over 1,469 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/counting-sheep rendered: 2026-11-11T16:54Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Counting Sheep](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/counting-sheep) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Counting Sheep A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/counting-sheep?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/counting-sheep?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/counting-sheep) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/counting-sheep?window=all) Price · $65.59 · 101 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $59.03 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 100.40% · 1,469 openings, odds method Variance · 8.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 93.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 82 openings · below min 7 days · 100.87% ±14.95 1,373 openings 30 days · 100.40% ±14.46 1,469 openings since tracking started · 100.40% ±14.46 1,469 openings -0.5% 58.0% 116.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/counting-sheep?window=24h) | 82 | 52.16% ±61.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/counting-sheep?window=7d) | 1,373 | 100.87% ±15.0 | +1.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/counting-sheep) | 1,469 | 100.40% ±14.5 | +1.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/counting-sheep?window=all) | 1,469 | 100.40% ±14.5 | +1.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,521 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $733 1,127 gems | 86.9% | 121 | 106.5 | 1.14× | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $52.94 81.44 gems | 9.0% | 142 | 152.1 | 0.93× | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $5.65 8.7 gems | 1.0% | 165 | 152.1 | 1.08× | | [Charm \| Lil' Squirt charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-squirt) | 15.0% | $3.84 5.9 gems | 1.0% | 230 | 228.2 | 1.01× | | [M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-battle-scarred) | 18.0% | $3.61 5.56 gems | 1.1% | 279 | 273.8 | 1.02× | | [Sticker \| Blue Gem (Glitter) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-blue-gem-glitter) | 20.0% | $2.16 3.32 gems | 0.7% | 304 | 304.2 | 1.00× | | [Charm \| Glamour Shot charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-glamour-shot) | 20.0% | $1.11 1.7 gems | 0.4% | 280 | 304.2 | 0.92× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) [BOTAIRTXonKICK Refbot,ai 50kLBs](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/BOTAIRTXonKICK%20Refbot%2Cai%2050kLBs) $65.59 101 gems $733 1,127 gems 11.17x 2026-11-11 16:05 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) Hidden $65.59 101 gems $733 1,127 gems 11.17x 2026-11-11 09:40 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) Hidden $65.59 101 gems $733 1,127 gems 11.17x 2026-11-11 09:39 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) Hidden $65.59 101 gems $733 1,127 gems 11.17x 2026-11-10 16:39 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) Hidden $65.59 101 gems $733 1,127 gems 11.17x 2026-11-10 13:51 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) Hidden $65.59 101 gems $733 1,127 gems 11.17x 2026-11-10 13:49 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) Hidden $65.59 101 gems $733 1,127 gems 11.17x 2026-11-10 00:13 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) Hidden $65.59 101 gems $733 1,127 gems 11.17x 2026-11-10 00:11 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) Hidden $65.59 101 gems $733 1,127 gems 11.17x 2026-11-09 03:47 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) Hidden $65.59 101 gems $733 1,127 gems 11.17x 2026-11-09 03:46 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=counting-sheep) [Sticker | Blue Gem (Glitter) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-blue-gem-glitter) Hidden $65.59 101 gems $2.16 3.32 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC [Charm | Lil' Squirt charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-squirt) Hidden $65.59 101 gems $3.84 5.9 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC [Charm | Lil' Squirt charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-squirt) Hidden $65.59 101 gems $3.84 5.9 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC [Sticker | Blue Gem (Glitter) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-blue-gem-glitter) Hidden $65.59 101 gems $2.16 3.32 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC [M4A4 | Temukau (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-battle-scarred) Hidden $65.59 101 gems $3.61 5.56 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC [Charm | Glamour Shot charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-glamour-shot) [HayzeusC](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/HayzeusC) $65.59 101 gems $1.11 1.7 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC [Charm | Glamour Shot charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-glamour-shot) Hidden $65.59 101 gems $1.11 1.7 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:05 UTC [M4A4 | Temukau (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-battle-scarred) Hidden $65.59 101 gems $3.61 5.56 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 16:05 UTC [Charm | Glamour Shot charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-glamour-shot) Hidden $65.59 101 gems $1.11 1.7 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:05 UTC [Sticker | Blue Gem (Glitter) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-blue-gem-glitter) Hidden $65.59 101 gems $2.16 3.32 gems 0.03x 2026-11-11 16:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $65.59 | 89.99% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 17.0% classified 10.0% #d32ce6 15.0% Ancient 18.0% remarkable 20.0% uncommon 20.0% best hit $733 (11.17x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt