--- title: "Crackpot Crunch case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Crackpot Crunch ($33.48) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 10 items with odds, observed 75.10% over 3,072 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/crackpot-crunch rendered: 2026-11-11T19:01Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Crackpot Crunch](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/crackpot-crunch) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Crackpot Crunch A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/crackpot-crunch?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/crackpot-crunch?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/crackpot-crunch) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/crackpot-crunch?window=all) Price · $33.48 · 51.5 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $30.12 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 75.10% · 3,072 openings, odds method Variance · 28.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 193 openings · below min 7 days · 79.05% ±21.80 2,260 openings 30 days · 75.10% ±18.70 3,072 openings since tracking started · 75.10% ±18.70 3,072 openings 19.0% 94.3% 169.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/crackpot-crunch?window=24h) | 193 | 94.27% ±74.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/crackpot-crunch?window=7d) | 2,260 | 79.05% ±21.8 | −1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/crackpot-crunch) | 3,072 | 75.10% ±18.7 | −1.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/crackpot-crunch?window=all) | 3,072 | 75.10% ±18.7 | −1.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,096 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $2,319 3,568 gems | 38.5% | 12 | 15.5 | 0.78× | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $845 1,301 gems | 14.0% | 11 | 15.5 | 0.71× | | [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $423 651 gems | 10.5% | 22 | 23.2 | 0.95× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Brocade Crane (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-brocade-crane-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $159 245 gems | 4.0% | 15 | 23.2 | 0.65× | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $67.09 103 gems | 2.8% | 48 | 38.7 | 1.24× | | [Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $50.71 78.01 gems | 2.1% | 44 | 38.7 | 1.14× | | [USP-S \| Whiteout (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $27.20 41.85 gems | 13.5% | 466 | 464.4 | 1.00× | | [Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-factory-new) | 15.0% | $14.81 22.79 gems | 7.4% | 415 | 464.4 | 0.89× | | [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $7.29 11.21 gems | 3.6% | 478 | 464.4 | 1.03× | | [Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-minimal-wear) | 50.0% | $2.13 3.27 gems | 3.5% | 1,585 | 1548.0 | 1.02× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $33.48 51.5 gems $2,319 3,568 gems 69.29x 2026-11-11 03:17 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $33.48 51.5 gems $2,319 3,568 gems 69.29x 2026-11-10 14:53 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $33.48 51.5 gems $2,319 3,568 gems 69.29x 2026-11-07 13:59 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $33.48 51.5 gems $2,319 3,568 gems 69.29x 2026-11-06 00:08 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $33.48 51.5 gems $2,319 3,568 gems 69.29x 2026-11-05 18:58 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $33.48 51.5 gems $2,319 3,568 gems 69.29x 2026-11-05 17:34 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $33.48 51.5 gems $2,319 3,568 gems 69.29x 2026-11-05 13:55 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $33.48 51.5 gems $2,319 3,568 gems 69.29x 2026-11-04 21:26 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $33.48 51.5 gems $2,319 3,568 gems 69.29x 2026-11-04 04:07 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $33.48 51.5 gems $2,319 3,568 gems 69.29x 2026-11-03 23:07 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=crackpot-crunch) [Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-minimal-wear) Hidden $33.48 51.5 gems $2.13 3.27 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:52 UTC [Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-minimal-wear) Hidden $33.48 51.5 gems $2.13 3.27 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:52 UTC [Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-minimal-wear) Hidden $33.48 51.5 gems $2.13 3.27 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:52 UTC [AK-47 | Aphrodite (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-factory-new) Hidden $33.48 51.5 gems $423 651 gems 12.64x 2026-11-11 18:52 UTC [Tec-9 | Avalanche (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-factory-new) Hidden $33.48 51.5 gems $14.81 22.79 gems 0.44x 2026-11-11 18:52 UTC [Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-minimal-wear) [Boomer IV](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Boomer%20IV) $33.48 51.5 gems $2.13 3.27 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:52 UTC [Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-minimal-wear) Hidden $33.48 51.5 gems $2.13 3.27 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:45 UTC [Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-minimal-wear) Hidden $33.48 51.5 gems $2.13 3.27 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:45 UTC [Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-minimal-wear) Hidden $33.48 51.5 gems $2.13 3.27 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:45 UTC [Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-minimal-wear) Hidden $33.48 51.5 gems $2.13 3.27 gems 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $33.48 | 89.99% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 30.5% covert 1.8% #eb4b4b 0.8% Immortal 0.8% restricted 16.3% Mythical 50.0% best hit $2,319 (69.29x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt