--- title: "Crimson Web case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Crimson Web ($625.50) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 116.72% over 68 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/crimson-web rendered: 2026-11-11T13:53Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Crimson Web](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/crimson-web) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Crimson Web A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/crimson-web?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/crimson-web?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/crimson-web) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/crimson-web?window=all) Price · $625.50 · 962 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $562.95 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 116.72% · 68 openings, odds method Variance · 4.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 16 openings · below min 7 days · 68 openings · below min 30 days · 68 openings · below min since tracking started · 68 openings · below min -0.5% 83.3% 167.0% **Small sample.** 68 openings and 6.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/crimson-web?window=24h) | 16 | 51.32% ±102.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/crimson-web?window=7d) | 68 | 116.72% ±49.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/crimson-web) | 68 | 116.72% ±49.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/crimson-web?window=all) | 68 | 116.72% ±49.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 68 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $4,522 6,957 gems | 40.2% | 6 | 3.4 | 1.76× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $4,029 6,199 gems | 35.8% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.47× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1,585 2,438 gems | 14.1% | 0 | 3.4 | 0.00× | | [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1,034 1,590 gems | 9.2% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.59× | | [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $13.36 20.55 gems | 0.5% | 13 | 13.6 | 0.96× | | [SCAR-20 \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-crimson-web-factory-new) | 20.0% | $6.41 9.86 gems | 0.2% | 15 | 13.6 | 1.10× | | [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-factory-new) | 20.0% | $2.11 3.24 gems | 0.1% | 10 | 13.6 | 0.74× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.55 0.85 gems | 0.0% | 17 | 13.6 | 1.25× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $626 962 gems $4,522 6,957 gems 7.23x 2026-11-09 01:53 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $626 962 gems $4,522 6,957 gems 7.23x 2026-11-09 01:53 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $626 962 gems $4,522 6,957 gems 7.23x 2026-11-09 01:49 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $626 962 gems $4,522 6,957 gems 7.23x 2026-11-07 00:52 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $626 962 gems $4,522 6,957 gems 7.23x 2026-11-06 00:28 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $626 962 gems $4,522 6,957 gems 7.23x 2026-11-04 20:59 UTC [★ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $626 962 gems $4,029 6,199 gems 6.44x 2026-11-10 14:18 UTC [★ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $626 962 gems $4,029 6,199 gems 6.44x 2026-11-10 02:43 UTC [★ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $626 962 gems $4,029 6,199 gems 6.44x 2026-11-09 01:53 UTC [★ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $626 962 gems $4,029 6,199 gems 6.44x 2026-11-07 00:52 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=crimson-web) [R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $626 962 gems $2.11 3.24 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 00:31 UTC [SCAR-20 | Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $626 962 gems $6.41 9.86 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 00:31 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $626 962 gems $0.55 0.85 gems 0.00x 2026-11-11 00:31 UTC [Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $626 962 gems $13.36 20.55 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 00:31 UTC [Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $626 962 gems $13.36 20.55 gems 0.02x 2026-11-11 00:31 UTC [SCAR-20 | Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-crimson-web-factory-new) [Mochi](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Mochi) $626 962 gems $6.41 9.86 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 00:31 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $626 962 gems $0.55 0.85 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 14:18 UTC [R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $626 962 gems $2.11 3.24 gems 0.00x 2026-11-10 14:18 UTC [SCAR-20 | Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $626 962 gems $6.41 9.86 gems 0.01x 2026-11-10 14:18 UTC [★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $626 962 gems $1,034 1,590 gems 1.65x 2026-11-10 14:18 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $626 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.0% Immortal 5.0% extraordinary 5.0% restricted 20.0% mil spec 40.0% #4b69ff 20.0% best hit $4,522 (7.23x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt