---
title: "CS20 Case case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "CS20 Case ($1.59) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.96% from 30 items with odds, observed 107.37% over 13.5K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cs20-case
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:36Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [CS20 Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cs20-case)

# [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · CS20 Case

A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cs20-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cs20-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cs20-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cs20-case?window=all)

Price · $1.59 · 2.44 gems

Advertised RTP · 89.96% · EV $1.43 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 107.37% · 13.5K openings, odds method

Variance · 85.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 172 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 95.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 117.72% ±47.24 1,466 openings

7 days · 111.57% ±17.27 11K openings

30 days · 107.37% ±15.57 13.5K openings

since tracking started · 107.37% ±15.57 13.5K openings

70.0% 117.8% 165.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 89.96% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (91.80% – 122.94%, 13,492 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cs20-case?window=24h) | 1,466 | 117.72% ±47.2 | +1.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cs20-case?window=7d) | 11K | 111.57% ±17.3 | +2.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cs20-case) | 13.5K | 107.37% ±15.6 | +2.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cs20-case?window=all) | 13.5K | 107.37% ±15.6 | +2.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $709 1,092 gems | 9.9% | 7 | 2.7 | 2.57× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $347 534 gems | 4.9% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.47× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-night-stripe-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $253 389 gems | 3.5% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.73× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $242 372 gems | 3.4% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.73× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $208 321 gems | 2.9% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.73× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $187 287 gems | 2.6% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.10× |
| [★ Classic Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife) | 1 in 5,000 | $183 282 gems | 2.6% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.10× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $169 260 gems | 2.4% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.47× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $153 236 gems | 2.1% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.47× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $141 217 gems | 2.0% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.73× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $140 215 gems | 2.0% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.73× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $127 195 gems | 1.8% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.73× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $119 183 gems | 1.7% | 8 | 2.7 | 2.94× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 313 | $75.58 116 gems | 17.0% | 43 | 43.6 | 0.99× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 94 | $9.39 14.45 gems | 7.0% | 148 | 145.2 | 1.02× |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-factory-new) | 1 in 313 | $7.39 11.37 gems | 1.7% | 46 | 43.6 | 1.06× |
| [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-factory-new) | 1 in 94 | $5.98 9.2 gems | 4.5% | 116 | 145.2 | 0.80× |
| [P90 \| Nostalgia (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-factory-new) | 1 in 94 | $5.77 8.88 gems | 4.3% | 134 | 145.2 | 0.92× |
| [MP5-SD \| Agent (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-agent-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $1.46 2.24 gems | 3.3% | 458 | 435.4 | 1.05× |
| [M249 \| Aztec (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-aztec-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $0.99 1.53 gems | 2.2% | 440 | 435.4 | 1.01× |
| [UMP-45 \| Plastique (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $0.96 1.48 gems | 2.2% | 461 | 435.4 | 1.06× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-buddy-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $0.96 1.47 gems | 2.1% | 444 | 435.4 | 1.02× |
| [P250 \| Inferno (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $0.92 1.41 gems | 2.1% | 402 | 435.4 | 0.92× |
| [Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-factory-new) | 11.4% | $0.55 0.85 gems | 4.4% | 1,531 | 1555.2 | 0.98× |
| [FAMAS \| Decommissioned (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-decommissioned-factory-new) | 11.4% | $0.21 0.33 gems | 1.7% | 1,568 | 1555.2 | 1.01× |
| [Tec-9 \| Flash Out (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-flash-out-factory-new) | 11.4% | $0.16 0.25 gems | 1.3% | 1,553 | 1555.2 | 1.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Classic Crate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-classic-crate-factory-new) | 11.4% | $0.15 0.23 gems | 1.2% | 1,566 | 1555.2 | 1.01× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Elite 1.6 (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-elite-1-6-factory-new) | 11.4% | $0.14 0.22 gems | 1.1% | 1,574 | 1555.2 | 1.01× |
| [MAG-7 \| Popdog (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-popdog-factory-new) | 11.4% | $0.14 0.22 gems | 1.1% | 1,559 | 1555.2 | 1.00× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Assault (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-assault-factory-new) | 11.4% | $0.14 0.21 gems | 1.1% | 1,534 | 1555.6 | 0.99× |

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $1.59 2.44 gems $709 1,092 gems 447.3x 2026-11-11 11:10 UTC

[★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $1.59 2.44 gems $709 1,092 gems 447.3x 2026-11-08 00:01 UTC

[★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) [X.Profe$$or](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/X.Profe%24%24or) $1.59 2.44 gems $709 1,092 gems 447.3x 2026-11-07 18:33 UTC

[★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) [ZEROFUX](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/ZEROFUX) $1.59 2.44 gems $709 1,092 gems 447.3x 2026-11-07 09:25 UTC

[★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $1.59 2.44 gems $709 1,092 gems 447.3x 2026-11-07 01:38 UTC

[★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $1.59 2.44 gems $709 1,092 gems 447.3x 2026-11-05 05:41 UTC

[★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $1.59 2.44 gems $709 1,092 gems 447.3x 2026-11-04 13:31 UTC

[★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) [NP](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/NP) $1.59 2.44 gems $347 534 gems 218.7x 2026-11-10 16:08 UTC

[★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $1.59 2.44 gems $347 534 gems 218.7x 2026-11-09 15:04 UTC

[★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $1.59 2.44 gems $347 534 gems 218.7x 2026-11-07 11:05 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=cs20-case)

[SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-assault-factory-new) Hidden $1.59 2.44 gems $0.14 0.21 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[M249 | Aztec (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-aztec-factory-new) Hidden $1.59 2.44 gems $0.99 1.53 gems 0.63x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[MAC-10 | Classic Crate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-classic-crate-factory-new) Hidden $1.59 2.44 gems $0.15 0.23 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-assault-factory-new) Hidden $1.59 2.44 gems $0.14 0.21 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-assault-factory-new) Hidden $1.59 2.44 gems $0.14 0.21 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[Tec-9 | Flash Out (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-flash-out-factory-new) [(GUAVA) KONKKI](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/%28GUAVA%29%20KONKKI) $1.59 2.44 gems $0.16 0.25 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-factory-new) Hidden $1.59 2.44 gems $0.55 0.85 gems 0.35x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Elite 1.6 (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-elite-1-6-factory-new) Hidden $1.59 2.44 gems $0.14 0.22 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-assault-factory-new) Hidden $1.59 2.44 gems $0.14 0.21 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-assault-factory-new) Hidden $1.59 2.44 gems $0.14 0.21 gems 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $1.59 | 89.96% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.8% knifes 0.0% covert knife 0.0% Immortal 0.0% Covert 0.0% classified 3.2% restricted 12.8% violet 3.2% mil spec 45.7% Rare 34.3% best hit $709 (447.3x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.96 on average: an expected loss of $10.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt