--- title: "Cursed Gold case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Cursed Gold ($21.18) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 99.82% over 1,449 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cursed-gold rendered: 2026-11-11T17:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Cursed Gold](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cursed-gold) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Cursed Gold A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cursed-gold?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cursed-gold?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cursed-gold) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cursed-gold?window=all) Price · $21.18 · 32.58 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $19.06 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 99.82% · 1,449 openings, odds method Variance · 7.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 78.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 99.31% ±37.64 202 openings 7 days · 94.82% ±14.88 1,292 openings 30 days · 99.82% ±14.05 1,449 openings since tracking started · 99.82% ±14.05 1,449 openings 61.0% 99.3% 137.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cursed-gold?window=24h) | 202 | 99.31% ±37.6 | +0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cursed-gold?window=7d) | 1,292 | 94.82% ±14.9 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cursed-gold) | 1,449 | 99.82% ±14.1 | +1.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cursed-gold?window=all) | 1,449 | 99.82% ±14.1 | +1.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,464 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $549 845 gems | 28.8% | 18 | 14.6 | 1.23× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $102 157 gems | 13.4% | 32 | 36.6 | 0.87× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $76.70 118 gems | 10.1% | 45 | 36.6 | 1.23× | | [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Charred (Battle-Scarred) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-charred-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $58.42 89.87 gems | 9.2% | 59 | 43.9 | 1.34× | | [USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $47.79 73.52 gems | 7.5% | 52 | 43.9 | 1.18× | | [AUG \| Lil' Pig (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $36.04 55.45 gems | 9.5% | 74 | 73.2 | 1.01× | | [Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $21.79 33.53 gems | 5.7% | 68 | 73.2 | 0.93× | | [PP-Bizon \| Rust Coat (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-rust-coat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $11.70 18 gems | 4.9% | 100 | 117.1 | 0.85× | | [MP9 \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hypnotic-factory-new) | 10.0% | $8.24 12.67 gems | 4.3% | 140 | 146.4 | 0.96× | | [UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-factory-new) | 60.0% | $2.10 3.23 gems | 6.6% | 876 | 878.4 | 1.00× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-factory-new) Hidden $21.18 32.58 gems $549 845 gems 25.94x 2026-11-11 16:23 UTC [M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-factory-new) Hidden $21.18 32.58 gems $549 845 gems 25.94x 2026-11-11 05:51 UTC [M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-factory-new) [Tobbe](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Tobbe) $21.18 32.58 gems $549 845 gems 25.94x 2026-11-10 22:59 UTC [M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-factory-new) [vamos](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/vamos) $21.18 32.58 gems $549 845 gems 25.94x 2026-11-10 15:04 UTC [M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-factory-new) Hidden $21.18 32.58 gems $549 845 gems 25.94x 2026-11-09 23:30 UTC [M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-factory-new) Hidden $21.18 32.58 gems $549 845 gems 25.94x 2026-11-09 11:58 UTC [M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-factory-new) Hidden $21.18 32.58 gems $549 845 gems 25.94x 2026-11-08 21:56 UTC [M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-factory-new) Hidden $21.18 32.58 gems $549 845 gems 25.94x 2026-11-08 09:02 UTC [M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-factory-new) Hidden $21.18 32.58 gems $549 845 gems 25.94x 2026-11-07 21:32 UTC [M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-factory-new) Hidden $21.18 32.58 gems $549 845 gems 25.94x 2026-11-07 20:31 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=cursed-gold) [USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-factory-new) Hidden $21.18 32.58 gems $47.79 73.52 gems 2.26x 2026-11-11 17:26 UTC [UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-factory-new) Hidden $21.18 32.58 gems $2.10 3.23 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 17:26 UTC [UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-factory-new) Hidden $21.18 32.58 gems $2.10 3.23 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 17:26 UTC [UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-factory-new) [Pejchyn](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Pejchyn) $21.18 32.58 gems $2.10 3.23 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 17:26 UTC [M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-factory-new) Hidden $21.18 32.58 gems $549 845 gems 25.94x 2026-11-11 16:23 UTC [UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-factory-new) [farlopero peek](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/farlopero%20peek) $21.18 32.58 gems $2.10 3.23 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 16:23 UTC [Galil AR | CAUTION! (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-field-tested) Hidden $21.18 32.58 gems $21.79 33.53 gems 1.03x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC [UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-factory-new) Hidden $21.18 32.58 gems $2.10 3.23 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC [AUG | Lil' Pig (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-factory-new) Hidden $21.18 32.58 gems $36.04 55.45 gems 1.70x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC [UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-factory-new) Hidden $21.18 32.58 gems $2.10 3.23 gems 0.10x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $21.18 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 6.0% Extraordinary 3.0% Ancient 3.0% classified 5.0% restricted 15.0% mil spec 8.0% violet 60.0% best hit $549 (25.94x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt