--- title: "Curved case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Curved ($289.45) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 11 items with odds, observed 76.91% over 39 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/curved rendered: 2026-11-11T15:20Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Curved](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/curved) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Curved A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/curved?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/curved?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/curved) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/curved?window=all) Price · $289.45 · 445 gems Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $260.50 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 76.91% · 39 openings, odds method Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 36.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 78.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 39 openings · below min 30 days · 39 openings · below min since tracking started · 39 openings · below min 8.0% 66.0% 124.0% **Small sample.** 39 openings and 14.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/curved?window=24h) | 6 | 65.95% ±57.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/curved?window=7d) | 39 | 76.91% ±22.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/curved) | 39 | 76.91% ±22.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/curved?window=all) | 39 | 76.91% ±22.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 39 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,758 2,704 gems | 3.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $1,596 2,456 gems | 4.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,052 1,619 gems | 4.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $797 1,226 gems | 3.1% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $596 917 gems | 6.9% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $469 721 gems | 9.0% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.51× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 10.0% | $290 446 gems | 11.1% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.77× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-urban-masked-well-worn) | 15.0% | $207 319 gems | 11.9% | 8 | 5.8 | 1.37× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-forest-ddpat-well-worn) | 17.5% | $201 309 gems | 13.5% | 7 | 6.8 | 1.03× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $185 285 gems | 14.2% | 9 | 7.8 | 1.15× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 26.3% | $182 279 gems | 18.3% | 10 | 10.2 | 0.98× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $289 445 gems $797 1,226 gems 2.75x 2026-11-05 14:14 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=curved) [★ Talon Knife | Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) Hidden $289 445 gems $185 285 gems 0.64x 2026-11-11 08:49 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) Hidden $289 445 gems $182 279 gems 0.63x 2026-11-11 08:49 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Urban Masked (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-urban-masked-well-worn) Hidden $289 445 gems $207 319 gems 0.72x 2026-11-11 08:49 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-forest-ddpat-well-worn) Hidden $289 445 gems $201 309 gems 0.69x 2026-11-11 08:49 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) Hidden $289 445 gems $185 285 gems 0.64x 2026-11-11 08:49 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) [haze](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/haze) $289 445 gems $185 285 gems 0.64x 2026-11-11 08:49 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $289 445 gems $290 446 gems 1.00x 2026-11-10 14:11 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) Hidden $289 445 gems $185 285 gems 0.64x 2026-11-10 14:11 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) Hidden $289 445 gems $182 279 gems 0.63x 2026-11-10 14:11 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-forest-ddpat-well-worn) Hidden $289 445 gems $201 309 gems 0.69x 2026-11-10 14:11 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $289 | 90.00% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 19.5% Covert 0.8% epic 1.0% covert knife 78.7% best hit $797 (2.75x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt