--- title: "Cypher case on Clash.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Cypher ($21.27) on Clash.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 7 items with odds, observed 91.67% over 1,107 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cypher rendered: 2026-11-11T22:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) / [Cypher](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cypher) # [Clash.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/clash) · Cypher A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cypher?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cypher?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cypher) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cypher?window=all) Price · $21.27 · 32.73 gems Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $19.15 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.67% · 1,107 openings, odds method Variance · 4.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 40 openings · below min 7 days · 91.99% ±13.24 935 openings 30 days · 91.67% ±12.17 1,107 openings since tracking started · 91.67% ±12.17 1,107 openings 40.5% 105.0% 169.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cypher?window=24h) | 40 | 105.00% ±64.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cypher?window=7d) | 935 | 91.99% ±13.2 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cypher) | 1,107 | 91.67% ±12.2 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/clash/cypher?window=all) | 1,107 | 91.67% ±12.2 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,130 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $190 292 gems | 49.6% | 55 | 56.5 | 0.97× | | [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $93.54 144 gems | 24.4% | 61 | 56.5 | 1.08× | | [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $26.08 40.13 gems | 6.8% | 51 | 56.5 | 0.90× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-factory-new) | 15.0% | $8.38 12.89 gems | 6.6% | 188 | 169.5 | 1.11× | | [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-factory-new) | 20.0% | $7.55 11.61 gems | 7.9% | 234 | 226.0 | 1.04× | | [MP7 \| Orange Peel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-orange-peel-factory-new) | 25.0% | $3.37 5.19 gems | 4.4% | 276 | 282.5 | 0.98× | | [SCAR-20 \| Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-blueprint-factory-new) | 25.0% | $0.25 0.39 gems | 0.3% | 265 | 282.5 | 0.94× | Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `clash:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=clash&case=cypher) [AK-47 | Green Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $21.27 32.73 gems $7.55 11.61 gems 0.35x 2026-11-11 21:40 UTC [MP7 | Orange Peel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-orange-peel-factory-new) [Michael Olise](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Michael%20Olise) $21.27 32.73 gems $3.37 5.19 gems 0.16x 2026-11-11 21:40 UTC [AK-47 | Green Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $21.27 32.73 gems $7.55 11.61 gems 0.35x 2026-11-11 17:26 UTC [SCAR-20 | Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-blueprint-factory-new) Hidden $21.27 32.73 gems $0.25 0.39 gems 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:26 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-factory-new) Hidden $21.27 32.73 gems $8.38 12.89 gems 0.39x 2026-11-11 17:26 UTC [AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new) [Pejchyn](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Pejchyn) $21.27 32.73 gems $190 292 gems 8.92x 2026-11-11 17:26 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-factory-new) Hidden $21.27 32.73 gems $8.38 12.89 gems 0.39x 2026-11-11 17:02 UTC [AK-47 | Green Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $21.27 32.73 gems $7.55 11.61 gems 0.35x 2026-11-11 17:02 UTC [MP7 | Orange Peel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-orange-peel-factory-new) Hidden $21.27 32.73 gems $3.37 5.19 gems 0.16x 2026-11-11 17:02 UTC [AK-47 | Green Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-factory-new) [Kick/HarryJZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/clash/Kick%2FHarryJZ) $21.27 32.73 gems $7.55 11.61 gems 0.35x 2026-11-11 17:02 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $21.27 | 89.99% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 20.0% mil spec 25.0% restricted 5.0% industrial 25.0% #4b69ff 25.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt